Mainly rain falls from the sky and ahead, the occasional hailstone. But you probably don’t consider pieces of rocket that you can get on your head. However, the probability is by no means zero.

If the remains of a rocket reenter our atmosphere after a space mission and crash on Earth, there is a roughly 10 percent chance of one or more casualties in the next ten years. This is shown by research by the University of British Columbia in Canada that in Nature Astronomy popped up. People in southern parts of the world are especially at risk. For example, the chance of being hit by rocket debris in Lagos, Dhaka or Jakarta is three times greater than in Moscow, New York or Beijing.

uncontrolled

The researchers analyzed thirty years of data to find out how great the risk is to humans if rocket parts crash into Earth uncontrollably. While there are major differences between rocket launches, the boosters and other large parts of rockets return to Earth in the same way or remain in space. In most cases, rockets fall back into the atmosphere uncontrollably and the debris can end up anywhere the rocket flies by.

Using satellite data, researcher Michael Byers and his colleagues calculated how many casualties from rocket debris you can expect over the next decade. The team focused on missile parts that are partially intact and pose a risk on land, in the sea or for aircraft. They assume that the remains of any rocket that crashes into Earth will spread over an area of ​​10 square meters. On average, there is then a 10 percent chance that one or more victims will be involved in ten years. The missiles, as mentioned, are three times more likely to land at southern latitudes.

steered landing

The question, of course, is why we can’t control those rocket landings. The answer: we can. The researchers explain that the technology is already there for a system that enables guided return of missiles. According to the scientists, what is lacking is the collective will to adopt these systems, because they are quite expensive. Without international agreements for controlled missile landings, countries carrying out space missions will cause unnecessary suffering in other countries, the researchers write.

Fuss over Chinese missile debris

In May last year there were still serious concerns about a Chinese rocket, part of which crashed into Earth. It was one of the largest man-made objects ever to re-enter the atmosphere. The big question was where the 20-ton piece of rocket would land. There was even a chance that the debris would land in southern Europe. With these types of large missiles, it has been agreed that they must crash into the ocean in a controlled manner, something China did not do last year. In the end, things fizzled out, but it does make it clear that it is very important to invest in systems that allow rocket debris to return to Earth in a controlled manner.