Advances in medicine and technology enable us humans to live to an ever increasing age. But how far does this trend towards higher life expectancy go? With the help of statistical methods, researchers have now calculated that the previous age record of 122 years will be broken with almost one hundred percent probability in the 21st century. According to their calculations, 130 years of life would also be quite conceivable, 135 or 140 on the other hand very unlikely.
How old can a person get? This question is scientifically controversial. While some assume a theoretically unlimited life span, others suspect that there is a maximum attainable age. Almost half a million people in the world are now over 100 years old, and their numbers have been increasing for decades. Significantly fewer people count than “supercentenarians”, that is, they live to be 110 years or older. The French woman Jeanne Calment, who died in 1997, holds the previous age record at 122 years of age. The oldest person at the moment is 118-year-old Kane Tanaka from Japan.
Mortality curve flattens out in the very old
The statisticians Michael Pearce and Adrian Raftery from the University of Washington have now calculated how likely it is that the previous age record will be broken by the year 2100, and what probability people will have significantly longer lifespans. “Understanding longevity is important as it has a major impact on government programs, economic policy, and individual planning,” the authors write. “With this work we quantify how likely it is that an individual will reach various extreme ages in this century.”
As a basis for their analyzes, they used the international database on longevity, which lists people from 13 countries who can be proven to be at least 110 years old. The researchers combined this information with statistical models, also taking into account future population growth. In addition, they included a statistical peculiarity of very old people: from a certain age the mortality curve flattens out again. According to observations, from the age of 110 the probability of living another year is around 50 percent – regardless of whether you are Is 110, 112 or 114 years old. “This is a very select group of very tough people,” explains Raftery. “You have left behind all the different things that life brings with it, like illnesses. They die for reasons that are somewhat independent of what concerns younger people. “
130 years old realistic
These supercentenarians are very rare, their number is currently estimated at only 300 to 450 people worldwide. As the population grows, however, it becomes more likely that there will be more of these people – and with it that existing age records will be broken. “Based on our methodology, we find that the probability of breaking the current age record of 122 years and 164 days in this century is close to 100 percent,” the researchers report. “The probability that a person will reach the age of 126 years is very high at around 89 percent, and the probability that a person will reach the age of 130 years is still realistic at almost 13 percent.” would be 135 or 140 years old by 2100, according to the calculations, although possible, it is extremely unlikely.
Pearce and Raftery see their statistical approach as an alternative to conventional attempts to determine a potential maximum human age. While some scientists have argued that there is no upper age limit, others have argued that the deterioration of cells leads to a natural limitation of lifespan – despite advancing medical possibilities. “Our results can be viewed as a way of resolving the apparent conflict between a limitation on human life and the lack of a specific limitation on human life,” write Pearce and Raftery.
Source: Michael Pearce and Adrian Raftery (University of Washington), Demographic Research, doi: 10.4054 / DemRes.2021.44.52