The turbines are getting bigger, the generators more powerful, the operating costs are lower: In the course of the past five years wind energy has become significantly cheaper, and experts expect that the costs will continue to fall rapidly. That is the result of a global survey of 140 wind energy experts. Compared to earlier estimates, the respondents assume a significantly greater reduction in costs – by 17 to 35 percent by 2035 and 37 to 49 percent by 2050. Even if the forecasts are fraught with uncertainty, they show that wind power will be one of the key factors for the energy mix of the future could play a bigger role than previously thought.
Renewable energies are gaining in importance worldwide in order to minimize CO2 emissions and meet climate targets. This includes wind power, among other things. Wind turbines on land or on the water use the wind to drive turbines and thereby generate electricity. Cost considerations always play a role in the construction of new plants: How many megawatt hours of energy is the wind power plant likely to produce over the course of its entire operating life? And how high are the costs for setting up the plant and operating it? The so-called electricity production costs can be calculated from this. This value indicates how much US dollars it costs to generate one megawatt hour of electrical energy. Depending on how expensive and how efficient a system is, the electricity production costs can vary considerably.
Greater cost reduction than previously assumed
A team led by Ryan Wiser from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in California has asked 140 wind power experts from all over the world how they assess the future cost development of wind energy. The respondents should refer to both onshore wind turbines and those that are either anchored on a solid base in the sea bed (fixed-bottom offshore) or are on floating platforms (floating offshore). The experts expect significant cost reductions for all three forms.
The research team had already carried out a similar survey in 2015, in which the experts also predicted that wind energy will become significantly cheaper. “As we show here, the actual costs fell even faster than the experts expected in 2015,” said Wiser and colleagues. With the current survey, the researchers provide an update that includes current trends in the wind energy industry. “Although extraordinary cost reductions have been achieved in recent years, further scientific, technical, manufacturing and commercial innovations are possible,” they write in their publication.
Technical innovations in the onshore and offshore sector
According to the experts questioned, an important factor for further cost reductions is the size of the turbines. In onshore wind farms, larger turbines could compensate for the fact that new wind turbines have to be placed in locations with slightly lower wind speeds, since the most attractive places are already in use. Offshore, they also ensure greater energy yield. In addition, further technical innovations in the offshore sector are estimated to make it possible to locate the turbines further away from the coast, where the wind is stronger. While floating offshore systems are still in an experimental phase, the experts assume that they will be profitable for commercial use in just a few years and that they will be able to develop areas with deeper water. More powerful generators also contribute to a further reduction in costs.
Overall, the experts anticipate that investment costs, ongoing operating costs and financing costs will decrease, while the capacity and service life of the systems will increase. On the basis of these considerations, they forecast that the LCOE for wind energy will fall by 17 to 35 percent by 2035 and by 37 to 49 percent by 2050, each based on the base values ​​of 2019. At the same time, however, the survey also illustrates the high level of uncertainty in such forecasts. Compared to other methods, expert surveys have the advantage that human experts can not only fall back on past data, but can also include future progress in their considerations. However, many of the influencing factors are difficult to assess.
Future of wind energy
“If all other factors stay the same, these trends will mean that wind energy will play a greater role in global energy supply than previously assumed, and at the same time facilitate the decarbonization of the energy sector,” concludes Wiser’s colleague Joachim Seel. “Analysts, investors, planners and political decision-makers should avoid outdated assumptions and forecasts.” As the costs of generating electricity from wind power are falling, the authors believe that further factors will increasingly come into focus in the future, including the price of wind energy Energy markets, storage and transmission requirements, and possible conflicts in use and impact on wildlife. Overall, however, the researchers are optimistic that wind energy will continue to gain in importance thanks to rapidly falling costs.
Source: Ryan Wiser (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, California, USA) et al., Nature Energy, doi: 10.1038 / s41560-021-00810-z