Insects are doing poorly – and so are important pollinators of our crops. But what if wild pollinating insects in Europe almost completely disappear by 2030? Researchers played out this scenario in a simulation. The result: The loss of wild pollinators would cause crop losses of up to 20 percent, drive up food prices and endanger our food security. Imports from other regions could only partially compensate for this.
Wild pollinator insects play a crucial role for countless plants and also our agriculture. Because they ensure the yield of many cultivated plants, but also the reproduction of numerous wild plants. As a result, these insects influence entire food chains and promote the stability of ecosystems. But the insects are doing badly: In Germany, the biomass of flying insects has decreased by three quarters in just under 30 years, and the populations of many insects are also falling drastically worldwide. Studies have shown that there is already a measurable decline in yields in many countries.
Yield drops of up to 20 percent
But what would be the consequences if more insects disappeared? Researchers led by Arndt Feuerbacher from the University of Hohenheim investigated this question. In their scenario, they simulated the effects of a 90 percent decline in wild pollinators in 2030 compared to 2017. “Our scenario describes an extreme case with a 90 percent decline in wild pollinators, which is unlikely but unfortunately not ruled out,” says co-author Johannes Steidle from the University of Hohenheim. The team determined the effects using the CAPRI agricultural economic simulation model. This reconstructs the supply, demand and trade of around 50 agricultural products worldwide and also realistically depicts the complex interactions between regional agriculture and global markets.
The result: If the populations of wild pollinating insects collapse, the production and yields of many crops in Europe would decline significantly – by an average of four percent. Plants that are not pollinated by insects, such as grain, would hardly be affected, but fruit and vegetables would be even more so. “Regions like Spain or parts of Eastern Europe, which depend heavily on wild pollinators, would even have to expect yield losses of over 20 percent,” says Steidle. These drops in yields are causing prices for many foods to rise, and other products could become scarce. This would also affect the European economy: “The resulting overall economic damage would amount to around 24 billion euros in Europe alone in 2030,” says Feuerbacher.
In addition, the supply situation for fruit, vegetables and oilseeds in Europe would deteriorate significantly. These crop products are of central importance not only economically, but also nutritionally. “According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, there are already 58 million people in Europe who are affected by moderate or severe food insecurity, especially in southern and eastern Europe. The challenge of reducing this number would become significantly more difficult if wild pollinators disappeared,” says senior author Christine Wieck from the University of Hohenheim.
Impact worldwide
If wild pollinators were to disappear in Europe, the effects would not only be limited to our continent. Falling European yields and rising prices would lead to noticeable shifts in international trade: instead of exporting fruit and vegetables, the EU would then have to import many types of fruit and vegetables. “Asia and Central and South America could cover around 80 percent of the additional European demand, but consumers worldwide would be burdened by higher prices,” explains Feuerbacher. Poorer countries and households would be particularly affected because they already have to spend a larger share of their income on food. According to researchers’ estimates, the overall economic loss worldwide would amount to over 34 billion euros in 2030.
In addition, wild pollinators cannot be replaced – even honey bees or technical processes cannot completely take over the pollination work of these insects. It is therefore important to better protect the remaining wild pollinating insects. “If Europe were to invest even a portion of the 24 billion annually in biodiversity-friendly agriculture, the promotion of flower strips, hedges and extensively used areas, we could significantly mitigate or even reverse the consequences of the decline in insects and secure both yields and nutrition in the long term,” emphasizes Feuerbacher.
Astonishing discrepancy among the EU states
Interestingly, there is a remarkable discrepancy in the EU between ecological concerns and political attitudes: the very countries that would suffer particularly badly from the disappearance of wild pollinators are the least willing to support EU protective measures such as regulations to reduce pesticides or renaturation. These include countries such as Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic, Italy, Romania and Bulgaria. “The economic costs of the disappearance of wild pollinators are particularly high in countries whose majority of EU representatives in parliament voted against the above-mentioned EU regulations,” reports Feuerbacher.
Overall, the results underline how heavily European agriculture depends on wild pollinators. The protection of these insects is therefore not only ecologically but also economically of central importance – especially in the regions that are most at risk and have so far given the least political support for such measures.
Source: University of Hohenheim; Specialist article: Nature Communications, doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-65414-7