Due to rising temperatures, scientists expect the worldwide yield of processed tomatoes to decrease by at least six percent.

What is the impact of climate change on our food? It is a question that concerns many scientists. In the meantime, we already know that due to climate change – and the associated increase in drought, heat waves and disease – rice and coffee yields could decline sharply in the long run. But there will be more victims, it suggests a new study† Because even a branch of the tomato industry appears not to be able to cope with further global warming.

Processed tomatoes

By the way, you don’t have to worry right away that there will be no tomatoes on the shelf at all. However, the researchers must disappoint avid lovers of ketchup, pizza sauce and other processed tomato products. A study shows that due to the expected rising temperatures, the yield of processed tomatoes will have decreased by at least six percent by 2050. “These tomatoes are grown in the open field,” explains research leader Davide Cammarano. “As a result, we have no control over the environment in which they grow. This makes production vulnerable to climate change.”

Processed tomato products
Processed tomatoes include tomatoes that are used for various tomato products, such as ketchup, dried tomatoes, a can of peeled tomatoes, tomato juice and tomato paste.

The researchers used five climate models for three different scenarios that predict how rising temperatures will affect tomato yields. The team focused on the world’s largest tomato-producing countries: the United States, Italy and China. Together, these countries produce about 65 percent of all tomatoes used in processed tomato products.

Decline

While outcomes varied in degree, the projected scenarios all pointed to a future where tomato production will change dramatically in the coming decades. And unfortunately in a negative sense. Over the next 30 to 40 years, the researchers expect a steady decline in yields, with the Italian crop likely to be hardest hit.

Italy

The findings show that both Southern California and Italy will experience water shortages in addition to rising temperatures. Moreover, Italy will only become drier over time. “This combination of higher temperatures and lack of water does not bode well for the Italian tomato industry as a whole,” Cammarano explains. “A significant number of the processed tomato industries are currently located in Italy. They will have to prepare for a future with a limited supply of tomatoes from local regions.”

United States and China

The United States and China are likely to do better, mainly thanks to cooler northern areas. Temperature rises in these areas can lead to an increase in yield. For example, the researchers predict that tomato yields will steadily increase in the northern Chinese province of Gansu and neighboring Mongolia. But even if tomato production increases in these regions, the expected yield is only a fraction of what is currently produced in California and Italy.

Special crops

With their study, the researchers show how important it is to also find out the future of foods other than rice and coffee. “We actually knew very little about the impact of climate change on specialty crops, such as processed tomatoes,” said study researcher Dev Niyogi. “And that while such tomato products are widely consumed worldwide and are an important source of nutrients.”

According to Niyogi, the climate projections from the study raise important questions about future tomato production worldwide. At the same time, they can help farms and manufacturing industries better prepare for the impacts of climate change. “The findings from our study could play a role in vulnerability assessments,” Niyogi said. “This could help companies devise better strategies for the future.”