The sun is shining and the long Easter weekend is coming: the temptation to take a trip these days despite exit restrictions is increasing. “CovidSIM”, a simulator that calculates the potential infection numbers, shows why this is not a good idea.
The exit restrictions have been in effect for several weeks in some federal states – and it is not known how long they will still apply. Many people are now annoyed by having to spend so much time at home. Isolation remains one of the most important measures against the corona virus – as the simulator shows “CovidSIM” clear.
The simulator was developed by epidemiologists and health authorities in Baden-Württemberg. It can be used to calculate how the number of infections would increase if a certain number of infected people within a population came into contact with other people.
So many people are infected
The number of infected people can be set arbitrarily in the tool, as well as the size of the population and some other parameters. This means that calculations can be carried out for different countries, cities or locations.
(Photo: CC0 / Pixabay / nastya_gepp)
We wanted to know how many infections a single infected person in Germany could potentially be responsible for. We therefore carried out a simulation for a population size of 83 million – the approximate population size of Germany. The infection rate is already preset: It is currently assumed that an infected person infects three more. According to the simulation, so many people can get sick from a corona infected person:
(Screenshot covidsim.eu)
- After a week, two people are infected.
- After two weeks there are already five people.
- After 50 days, 595 people are sick. Another 100 have recovered by then.
- After 100 days, 420,131 people are infected, 71,146 are healthy again.
- The infection curve peaks after about 145 days: then more than 39 million people are infected. By then, more than 20 million people have overcome the disease.
The number of unreported cases is high
The results of the simulation are terrifying – especially when you consider that the trigger was only an infected person. In fact, more than 100,000 people are ill in Germany, and the number of unreported cases is probably even higher.
However, this simulation assumes normal conditions. However, due to the current exit restrictions, there is significantly less contact between people – the contagions are at least currently less.
Less contact – less corona infected
The tool can also be used to calculate how the infection rate changes when there is less exchange. If you only reduce the contacts by 50 percent, the number of infections is drastically reduced:
- After a week: an infected person
- After two weeks: three infected
- After 50 days: 13 infected; eleven are healthy again
- After 100 days: 128 infected, 127 recovered
- The curve only climbs after about 242 days – then more than 39 million people are infected, more than 20 million are healthy again. For comparison: Without contact reduction, the peak is reached after 145 days.
Caution: The simulation only provides an approximate model that cannot predict the exact course of the pandemic in Germany. Too many additional factors play a role. Different research institutions therefore make very different forecasts and deliver different numbers. This is because their calculations are based on different basic assumptions and they do not all include the same parameters.
However, the CovidSim simulator and many other models have one thing in common: They show how effective contact blocks and social isolation can be – and why we shouldn’t take any chances of spreading the virus at Easter.
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