But then enough people must be vaccinated and the spread of newly emerging variants must be nipped in the bud.

Of course we all want to get rid of corona as soon as possible. But what is the chance that the coronavirus will soon be a thing of the past? In a new study, scientists decided to study the extent to which global eradication of COVID-19 is possible. And the results are promising.

Smallpox and polio

To estimate the feasibility of eradicating COVID-19, the researchers compared the disease with two other viral plagues for which vaccines became available: smallpox and polio. Smallpox was the first virus to be eradicated by modern science. Although polio has not yet completely disappeared from the globe, two of the three serotypes have been eradicated worldwide.

More about smallpox and polio
Smallpox, also known as variola, was caused by the variola virus. With more deaths than the plague, smallpox has probably been the deadliest disease in human history. Since 1977, the disease has been eradicated thanks to a worldwide vaccination campaign. Polio is a highly contagious viral disease that spread after the Second World War and caused increasing numbers of victims. The disease mainly affects children under the age of five. The first symptoms of the disease – which cannot be cured, only prevented – are fever, fatigue, headache, vomiting, pain in the limbs and a stiff neck. One in 200 infections leads to irreversible paralysis, usually of the legs. Vaccines against polio continued to reduce the disease. On August 25, 2020, all of Africa was declared polio-free by the World Health Organization. This after the last country there, Nigeria, was free from new wild polio infections for 4 years. Two more countries are endemic: Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The researchers compared technical, socio-political and economic factors for all three infections. They used a scoring system of three points for each of seventeen variables. These include factors such as the availability of a safe and effective vaccine; lifelong immunity; impact of public health measures; effective government management such as infection control reporting; political and public concerns about the economic and social consequences of the infection and public acceptance of measures introduced.

The mean total scores in the analyzes were 2.7 (43/48) for smallpox, 1.6 (28/51) for COVID-19 and 1.5 (26/51) for polio.

Feasibility

These results show that global eradication of COVID-19 is likely achievable. In fact, it should be easier than polio. However, the chance compared to smallpox is a lot less. “While our analysis is a preliminary result, with several subjective components, it appears that COVID-19 may be eradicated,” the researchers write in their study. “Especially in terms of technical feasibility.”

Challenges

However, there are still some major challenges. Some of these are, for example, poor acceptance of vaccines and the emergence of more contagious corona variants, which may even be able to cope with our vaccines. The greatest challenges therefore lie in securing a sufficiently high vaccination coverage and responding quickly to the emergence of new variants. Other challenges include high initial costs (for vaccination and improving health systems), so-called ‘vaccine nationalism’ which can hinder necessary international cooperation and the mistrust of some governments in science.

Want

On the other hand, there is clearly a global will to end the pandemic, the researchers emphasize. For example, the sheer magnitude of the health, social and economic impacts of COVID-19 across most of the world has sparked unprecedented interest in disease control and massive investment in the search for an effective vaccine. In addition, unlike smallpox and polio, large-scale measures have been introduced in the fight against COVID-19. For example, think of lockdowns, border controls, keeping distance, contact investigation and wearing mouth caps.

In short, vaccination, corona measures and the worldwide interest in fighting the pandemic (partly as a result of the enormous financial and social havoc caused by the virus) should make the disappearance of COVID-19 possible. Although that is of course a relief, at the same time, the researchers are apprehensive. “The World Health Organization has yet to formally assess the feasibility and desirability of attempting to completely eradicate COVID-19,” they conclude.