The coronavirus outbreak causes a lot of disruption and a lot of unintended consequences. One is that the fleet in the Netherlands may become even older than it already is, as it is expected that people will continue to drive with their current model for longer.
BOVAG noted some time ago: hardly anyone comes to the showroom to look for a new car. The industry organization wondered aloud whether car companies should still remain open. It is therefore expected that car sales will suffer considerably from the current situation. This month, damage is expected to be limited to a drop of just under 10 percent, but the decline will be a lot more significant in April and May. It is therefore likely that motorists will drive longer with their current model.
‘Old’ cars almost a quarter of the fleet
The ING Economic Bureau expects cars over fifteen years old to represent 24 percent of the Dutch fleet this year. That would mean a number of over two million vehicles. In 2010, that share was still 13 percent.
Dutch passenger cars are on average eleven years old, according to Statistics Netherlands (CBS) last April. In 2009, the average age was still nine years.
Although the average age of eleven is in line with the European average, it is considerably higher than in neighboring countries. Belgian passenger cars are almost three years younger, those in Germany two years.
RAI Association points to the high taxation of passenger cars and motorcycles (bpm), which make new cars in the Netherlands considerably more expensive than elsewhere. For example, a Renault Clio costs here at least 17,890 euros, while in Belgium it is 14,875 euros and in France 14,100 euros.
‘Scrapping scheme would pay off’
An additional problem with the aging of the Dutch vehicle fleet is that CO2 emissions are falling less rapidly, making it more difficult to achieve the government’s climate targets. According to BOVAG, a new national scrapping premium would therefore not be a bad idea once the coronavirus outbreak is under control and the country can pick up again.
Such a scrapping scheme previously applied between 2009 and 2010, at the end of the global credit crisis. Motorists at the time received a premium of between 750 and 1,000 euros for exchanging their old car. In the end, more than 80,000 Dutch people made use of it.
“A scrapping scheme could pay off right now, in order to encourage people to spend on a new car, just like in 2009,” said BOVAG spokesman Tom Huyskens.