The coronavirus outbreak and measures taken will hit the auto industry hard. Not only are the factories stopped, the buyer audience stays away from the showroom. Coffee grounds continue to look at how fast sales will fall. However, the first agencies have ventured into a prediction.
The first estimate is that European car sales will drop by 20 percent this year. That means about 3 million fewer copies, according to the German Scope Ratings. Credit rating agency Moody’s expects a 21 percent drop in our part of the world.
Expected sales in Europe are being revised down by 1.9 million vehicles to 15.6 million by IHS Markit, according to an overview from Automotive News Europe. Morgan Stanley assumes 12.5 million units, compared to 13.7 million previously.
Worldwide drop of up to 14 percent
Worldwide sales are expected to reach 78.8 million vehicles. Earlier this year, IHS assumed just under 90 million cars, while it is more common that around 100 million vehicles are sold annually.
LMC Automotive is committed to selling less than 77 million vehicles worldwide. In the worst case scenario, the agency thinks 69 million cars will be sold. They also initially assumed sales of approximately 90 million copies. Morgan Stanley expects global sales to drop 13 percent later, while Moody’s sees sales decline 14 percent this year. RBC Capital Markets accounts for a minus 20 percent to 13.5 million vehicles for the United States. IHS is slightly more positive with a forecast of 14.4 million copies. Moody’s, which has only released percentages, thinks there will be 15 percent less sales in the United States this year.
Sales decline in the Netherlands around 9 percent
In the Netherlands, it will become clearer later this week about the effects of the coronavirus outbreak on car sales. These will remain limited for the time being by the number of vehicles already ordered.
Based on the registration figures for the first three sales weeks, BOVAG sees a decrease of approximately 9 percent to approximately 21,500 vehicles. The Tesla Model 3 is currently the best-selling with over 1,200 copies.