Germany has set itself the goal of emitting 65 percent less CO2 in 2030 than in 1990. But according to the current status, we are missing this climate target, as the current projection report of the Federal Environment Agency suggests. According to this, emissions could be around 331 million tons above the self-imposed limit by 2030. The Federal Environment Agency sees a particular need to catch up in the areas of transport and buildings.
Every two years, the Federal Environment Agency publishes a projection report in which it predicts the development of greenhouse gas emissions in Germany up to 2030. The report is intended to serve as a guide for politicians when deciding on new measures and to help them meet the climate goals they have set themselves. In concrete terms, Germany wants to emit 65 percent less CO2 by 2030 than it did in 1990. By 2045, the entire country should even be completely climate-neutral.
Two future scenarios
A panel of experts from various German research institutions is responsible for looking into the future. It bases its projections on current data on fossil fuels and emissions and then extrapolates these together with various framework data such as population development or the price of CO2 up to 2030. In the end, two different future scenarios emerge: a With Measures Scenario (MMS) that takes into account all political measures that have been decided by August 31, 2022, and a With Further Measures Scenario (MWMS) that takes into account all planned ones contains instruments and measures that have a realistic chance of being adopted in the near future.
Climate targets and climate neutrality cannot be achieved in this way
In the current projection report 2023, however, the political expert panel gives a bad report. Although Germany has already made significant progress in the past two years, it will not be enough to meet the climate goals, according to the report. The extrapolation shows: With the climate protection measures currently adopted, Germany would save only 63 instead of 65 percent of greenhouse gases by 2030 compared to 1990. And thus narrowly missed the climate target he had set himself.
At first glance, this small discrepancy appears negligible, but in reality it corresponds to a surplus of up to 331 million tonnes of greenhouse gases. Even if the government decides to take further measures in a timely manner (MWMS scenario), the surplus will shrink to 194 million tons, but will not be eliminated. According to the projection report, Germany is still a long way from achieving climate neutrality in 2045. With the measures currently adopted, 212 million tons of greenhouse gases would be emitted into the atmosphere annually by then, and even with further measures it would still be 157 million tons.
Backlog demand for transport and buildings
According to the projection report, the biggest problem children in Germany are the transport industry and the building sector. According to the latest projections, the transport sector will consistently miss its emissions targets every year up to 2030. The authors attribute this primarily to a lack of e-cars. If no further measures are decided to minimize emissions from the transport sector, this sector alone will build up a surplus of 210 million tonnes of greenhouse gases by 2030. Added to this is the surplus of the building sector, which will be between 34 and 96 million tons. In order to get this area on course, a large part of the newly installed heating systems would have to work in a climate-friendly manner. For example, heat pumps or district heating could be considered.
By contrast, the energy sector and industry are much better on course. "Furthermore, the energy industry makes the greatest contribution to reducing emissions," reports co-project manager Hannah Förster from the Öko-Institut. The early phase-out of coal and the strong expansion of renewable energies ensure that the energy sector will even undercut its emissions limit by 37 million tons by 2030 and thus "overachieve" its sector-specific climate target. Industry will also significantly reduce its emissions by 2030. Depending on whether further measures are taken, it could just miss the specified climate targets or achieve them.
"Compared to the last projection report from 2021, we see significant improvements, which can be attributed primarily to the accelerated expansion of renewable energies and the premature phase-out of coal," sums up co-project manager Ralph O. Harthan from the Öko-Institut, "but it is still necessary The federal government must take further steps to close the gap to net zero in climate-damaging greenhouse gas emissions by 2045.”
Source: Öko-Institut e. V. – Institute for Applied Ecology; Projection report 2023 for Germany