How diesel disappears from the showroom – Part 2

It was briefly discussed in the previous installment of this series: the current European emission standards for combustion engines are virtually the same for both diesel and petrol cars. At the same time, the CO2 emissions of a new diesel are lower due to lower consumption. The exhaust gas aftertreatment of modern diesel cars has even improved to such an extent that an example in urban areas ‘filters the ambient air clean’, as Bart Somers points out. Somers, professor at Eindhoven University of Technology, therefore advocates the diesel engine as a means of directly reducing the CO2 emissions of the Dutch vehicle fleet. Not only as an alternative to petrol power sources, but also as a temporary equivalent of the electric car (EV): “In the short term, the battery car has no or even a negative effect on the total CO2 emissions. This is mainly due to the CO2 intensity of its production, but also to the current Dutch energy mix; our electricity is not quite so green at the moment.”

In addition, a recently published study by Öivind Andersson and Pål Börjesson, of Lund University in Sweden, points to the importance of developing both electric cars and renewable fuels, more on that next week. The latter are still under development, but they will soon be compatible with combustion engines as we already know and buy them. The Swedish study concludes that both energy carriers – electricity and renewable fuels – are needed to meet the sector’s climate objectives. . Not only that, it also argues that current EU policy does not sufficiently take into account that need: “The policy instruments favor electrification and should be corrected.”

startling

How this works in practice is as simple as it is startling. The current WLTP emission measurement takes place ‘at the rear bumper’, where electric cars have an advantage. ‘No exhaust, no emissions’, suggests the current way of working. The EU target for this year is an average CO2 emission of no more than 95 grams per kilometer for new cars. If you measure that at the rear bumper, then the EV is the means to achieve that goal – and then cars with emissions of up to 50 grams of CO2 per kilometer also count extra heavily for that average.

It is therefore easy to guess why Dutch policy is paving the way for the electrification of the vehicle fleet. Not unjustly, says Auke Hoekstra, TU/e ​​colleague of Somers and expert in the field of electric transport: “Batteries are quickly becoming more affordable. That will soon make a better business case. In addition, an electric car is four times more efficient than a car with a combustion engine and there is still a lot to be gained in the development of the technology, while the efficiency of fuel engines is still very limited.” Yet he also sees benefit in diesel, but only in the short term. “And we should not delay the rise of the EV for that reason,” emphasizes Hoekstra.

Somers is a bit more nuanced about this: “If you look at the global level, the battery production of EVs is a particular problem. This is extremely CO2-intensive, especially because of the extraction of raw materials that it requires. The Netherlands has nothing to do with that production, so that raises the question: do you want to clean your own shop or the whole world?”

Volkswagen ID3

Volkswagen – which invests tens of billions in electric cars – revealed the CO2 intensity of production and use – including fuel and electricity production chains – of its Golf VIII diesel and its ID3. Somers used the figures for a calculation and found that an ID3 is net greener than a Golf 8 diesel after 120,000 kilometers driven: a number that is in line with the results of research reports he previously studied and which validates his case for the diesel. .

Although the figures used come from Volkswagen itself, Hoekstra considers them too EV-sceptical. “What you often see is that in life cycle assessments (calculations of the CO2 intensity of all phases of life – manufacture, use, demolition/recycling – of a car or technology; ed.) they take too little account of the greening of the electricity, the rapidly becoming less taxing battery chain and the emissions involved in the production of petrol or diesel. As a result, the EV often comes out too negatively,” says Hoekstra. Moreover, with his own studies, he shows a completely different tipping point: already after 30,000 kilometers an average EV, running on the current European energy mix, would have compensated for the extra CO2 intensity of its production.

Diesel stays

According to Somers, that is again too optimistic: “Yes, that turning point will fall – partly because the electricity is becoming greener – but you can counter this with the fact that in the future our diesel will consist to a greater extent of renewable fuels. After all, diesel will remain for a long time for other, heavier means of transport than the car and therefore requires further development in any case.”

“Consider also”, continues Somers, referring to the aim to only have emission-free new cars by 2030, “that after 2030 the majority of cars will still require fuel. If you don’t make it greener, it will still be difficult to achieve the CO2 targets. So we need EVs and renewable fuels.”

According to Somers, where things go wrong is the way of thinking: “Some say: never push a technology, but think from the point of view. And that goal is less CO2. There is no single right way to do this, but it does mean that we will eventually have to completely get rid of fossil fuels.”

Consensus

Hoekstra also supports the latter. When asked why there is so much division about the different methods of achieving it, he calls the cessation of fossil fuels the biggest transition since the industrial revolution. “It is a very complex issue, in which – with regard to car mobility – according to my research, the electric car has the greatest role.” However, he also thinks that the diesel is currently being made too black. “Although that is also a bit of a bean for his wages, because of Dieselgate.”

The scandal surrounding the cheating software was disastrous for the relationship of trust between politics and the car industry. Partly because of this, the sector association Bovag does not expect that the positive technological development of the diesel engine will lead to a boost in sales: “That would require a gigantic change in the tax system, and that is not an issue at all,” said spokesman Tom Huyskens. . “Certainly not because EVs are already the standard for more and more people and policymakers. They will no longer consider the inequality between petrol and diesel. On purely rational grounds, however, you should now embrace diesel. In the short term, you contribute to the climate objectives. The more new diesels on the road, the better. And as a private frequent or multi-driver, you could easily benefit from a young used example.”

However, for such a copy, due to the equally declining sales of new diesels, you have to search well, as it turned out in part one of this triptych. The offer is narrow. Will this ever turn around again as a result of the rise of renewable fuels? And what exactly are those renewable fuels? You will read that next week.