The Internet and social media are a double -edged sword for democracy: On the one hand, they simplify access to information and political participation. On the other hand, however, they often have a polarizing effect and reinforce social division, contribute to a dwindling confidence in the state, facilitate the spread of false information and promote populist currents. As early as 2023, a study recorded worrying effects on democracy. A current study has now confirmed these results. Accordingly, it also depends on the political landscape whether positive or negative effects predominate.
The Internet and in particular social media can influence the relationship between the population to politics in a variety of ways. This was the result of a study published in 2023, for which a team led by Philipp Lorenz-Sprreen from the Max Planck Institute for Education Research (MPIB) in Berlin evaluated almost 500 empirical studies. Accordingly, Facebook, X, Instagram, TikTok and Co can improve political participation and the consumption of political information for broad parts of the population. This ensures positive effects, especially in autocracies and developing democracies. On the other hand, there are also negative consequences, including decreasing trust in state institutions, increasing populism and growing polarization – especially in established democracies.
Positive and negative influences
A team around Ziqian Xia from the University of Cambridge in Great Britain has now replicated this study, including new data. “We have expanded the original data record by 110 publications that have been published by May 2024,” reports the research team. “Our results confirm the conclusions of the original study and show that the effects of digital media on democracy vary depending on the political context and specific variables.”
In accordance with the original study, Xia and his colleagues also come to the conclusion that in established democracies such as Germany, negative effects of digital media often predominate on democracy. In this way, the Internet and in particular social media not only make the spread of false information, but also contribute to the fact that many people primarily consume news that match their own worldview. In addition, several empirical studies show that populist narratives are particularly successful online, especially when they spread emotional messages that cause prejudices against other social groups.
Between participation and polarization
“The replication study underpins our results and the worrying trends stop,” says Lorenz-Sprreen, the first author of the original study. “The correlative evidence increases that digital media can have a negative impact on political processes – we see stricter polarization, increasing distrust in democratic institutions and media as well as increased spread of misinformation.”
In some cases, causal relationships are already documented beyond the statistical correlations. “For example, polarization increased in places after access to broadband internet was possible,” reports Lorenz-Sprreen. In many areas, however, it is still unclear to what extent digital media really have a causal influence. “For future replications of the study, it would be interesting to include even more publications on causal contexts,” write Xia and his colleagues. “But the previous results already underline the need for further research and regulatory efforts.”
Task for politics and science
This view is also Lorenz-Sreens colleague Ralph Hertwig, who was involved in the 2023 study. “We have enough convergent evidence to take these challenges seriously and develop strategies that minimize the risks and at the same time use and protect the democratic potential of digital media in the best possible way,” he says. Political measures such as the Digital Services Act of the European Union, which creates framework conditions for digital platforms, can help to reduce negative aspects such as false information and hate speech and to protect fundamental rights of democratic rights on the Internet.
“In terms of science, Digital Service Act provides that large platforms and search engines have to grant research to data for the investigation of ‘systemic risks’ in the EU, for example with regard to the distribution of illegal content, targeted false information and hatred as well as dangers for health and minors,” explains Lorenz-Sprreen. “To draw consequences from these empirical results is the task of politics.”
Source: Ziqian Xia (University of Cambridge, UK) et al., I4R Discussion Paper Series, No. 206Institute for Replication (I4R)