It is interesting how relatively well electric cars and (plug-in) hybrids continue to perform despite addition malaise and / or Covid crisis. Even more striking is that without any additional tax benefit, the hybrid share, whether or not it is plugged in, grows faster than that of the EVs. Hybrid sales rose 73% this year, bringing their market share to 18% – versus 13% for electric. It is the same in Germany. There were already 375,000 plugins sold there this year, one hundred thousand more than last year. How electric do we want to become? Apparently many buyers prefer to tap from two barrels rather than make themselves completely dependent on the charging station network.
I’m not going to be the Nostradamus here, but the trend doesn’t surprise me. Based on my own experiences, I have been expecting a T-junction in the electrification process for some time now. You did not need a crystal ball for the stagnation of the EV market due to the rising addition rates – Tesla Netherlands will have had no illusions about the sales results for 2020. Perhaps for the question whether the first experiences with electric cars could lead to a rethink of electric driving. Or motorists, put off by their own negative experiences or those of others, would not, on closer inspection, prefer a less thorny route. In short, whether the plug-in would become the pragmatic alternative to fully electric. I kept wondering when that tipping point would come. But it may have already happened. The numbers speak clear language.
That could happen, because plugins in particular are becoming an increasingly attractive alternative to EVs. With electric ranges of 50 to 60 kilometers in the middle class and from 80 to even 100 in a handful of large SUVs like the Suzuki Across or the Mercedes GLE 350de, the majority of buyers can drive fully electrically under normal conditions. Just recharged the Suzuki, the rebadged Toyota RAV4 with plug, this week my guest in Drenthe: 76 kilometers, and it was not even at 100%. He also achieves that promised range, just as the GLE without fail travels eighty kilometers of highway before the diesel engine starts – and that could easily reach a hundred on a hot summer day. Even with a smaller middle class like the Renault Captur, which still gets fifty kilometers on a charge, I drove all kilometers here in the region purely electric.
Remarkable developments. How should you value them? As a step back, an undesirable compromise? As a threat to the energy transition? Or, perhaps, as the inevitable parallel course towards cleaner driving?
As a frequent user of both plugins and EVs, I lean towards the latter. For a frequent driver like me, EV driving has not necessarily become more pleasant this year. Ironically, the problems with electric driving have arisen from the success of electric driving. Full fast charging stations at FastNed lead to waiting times and, depending on the distance to be traveled, to serious delays on the road. While social isolation temporarily took the pressure off, many EV drivers without the homework requirement would have faced the limits of growth. Because charging at home with increasingly large batteries takes longer and people travel greater distances thanks to the growing range of action, the dependence on the public network is increasing and it is also used much more intensively than the pump. Because you are on the safe side while on the road, users recharge more often than strictly necessary. The electric car remains a business risk on longer journeys. One faulty fast charging station at the wrong time and you hang. That’s why, while I love the concept so much, I still don’t drive electric. I had already had an EV in the Randstad, but from Drenthe it is too impractical. Charging speeds with fast chargers fluctuate so disturbingly unpredictably. Great, a car with a charging capacity of 150 kW, less pleasant if it is not half as fast in practice.
Then the plugin is much more comfortable. As long as I drive electrically, I am just as climate-friendly on the road as in a Tesla. Loading and waiting stress are gone. The small batteries can still be charged overnight at home and even at a normal public charging station they are relatively quickly full; the Mercedes GLE even has a fast charger. After a few test EVs, I always experience them as soothingly soothing. So I suspect that in the coming years more potential switchers will prefer a plug hybrid over pure electric. Keep an eye on it, because it might bother the EV.