And also almost sixty percent of the oil may not be used.

Almost six years ago, 196 countries came together for the famous Paris climate summit. A promising agreement was rolled out, agreeing to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius and even commit to staying below the 1.5-degree limit. In order to achieve that, our emissions have to be drastically reduced. And in a new study the researchers calculated how much fossil fuels we would have to leave in the ground for this.

Fossil fuels

In order to halt further global warming, global CO2 emissions must be halved by 2030, before they fall to zero at the latest twenty years later. However, there is still a long way to go if we really want to be CO2 neutral by 2050. “The IPCC has indicated that we must immediately drastically reduce fossil fuel production if we are to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions to net zero,” said study leader Dan Welsby.

Extraction

However, not much seems to be happening right now. To achieve the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement, global oil and gas production must decrease by 3% annually until 2050. But current planned and operational fossil fuel extraction projects are far from contributing to this zealous goal. In addition, a significant number of regions have already reached peak fossil fuel production. And any increase in production in one region must be compensated by a larger decrease in production elsewhere.

Study

In a new study, the researchers decided to calculate what we need to do to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The researchers used a global energy system model to map out how much fossil fuels may no longer be pumped out of the ground regionally and globally.

Untouched

The researchers find that almost 90 percent of coal reserves must remain untouched if we really want to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees. In addition, almost sixty percent of both oil and fossil methane gas may no longer be extracted. In terms of regional distribution, the Middle East must leave about 60 percent of its oil and gas reserves in the ground. Given the large size of the stocks that can be found here, this will also result in huge absolute volumes. In addition, in Canada about 83 percent of the tar sands can no longer be mined and 73 percent of the ultra-heavy crude oil must remain in the South American soil.

The regional differences in the proportion of fossil fuels that must remain untapped is due to a combination of factors, the researchers explain. Think of the extraction costs, the carbon intensity of production and the costs of alternative technologies to fossil fuels.

The findings from the study show that we don’t have much wiggle room. “Our research shows that global oil and fossil methane production has already peaked,” Welsby said. It means that there is quite a bit of work to do to bring about a turnaround and prevent further global warming. However, the researcher sees a rather bright future. “Assuming the political will to deliver on the commitments made in Paris, the fossil fuel reductions proposed in our work are fully achievable,” he concludes.