‘Price diesel will peak at the beginning of 2023’

Diesel prices are expected to rise for the time being as a result of a tight market supply. Due to various circumstances, that supply will be a bit tighter in the coming period, so that it is expected that there will be a peak in diesel prices around February.

Some of the causes of the shortage have already been assumed: during the corona pandemic there was less room for maintenance on refineries, which means that there is now a relatively large amount of maintenance overdue. Now that maintenance is still being carried out on the refineries, their capacity is temporarily lower. This has only a minor impact on the diesel price, as this was already anticipated.

The strikes in the energy sector in France are of greater influence. That country has a relatively large refining capacity, so large-scale strikes are quickly noticeable throughout the European market. Last week, four out of six oil refineries in the country were shut down due to strikes and unscheduled maintenance. These unforeseen production-limiting circumstances have a more negative impact on prices than foreseen circumstances.

Russian diesel import stop

In addition to overdue maintenance and strikes, the price of diesel is also rising due to the war between Russia and Ukraine. The European sanctions against Russia mean, among other things, that no unprocessed oil will be shipped from Russia to Europe from December. In addition, from February, there will be a total ban on imports of all refined oil products from Russia. Partly because of this, it is expected that the price per barrel will peak around that time. According to Reuters, it is difficult to build up a diesel stock to compensate for the import stop in terms of price. This is due to the other restrictive circumstances. A further rise in the diesel price in the run-up to February is therefore to be expected.