Sales of new cars in our country in 2020 will decline almost a quarter compared to last year. ING expects that. A cautious recovery is expected for 2021.
You could hear a pin drop in the showroom at many dealers last spring. In the meantime, sales are picking up again, but the car companies are still far from recovering from the blow of last spring. ING’s economic bureau expects that sales of new cars will remain stuck at roughly 340,000 units this year. That is a decrease of almost 25 percent compared to last year. To put it in perspective: ING reports that 2020 will remain at its lowest point since the 1960s. A previous expectation from Bovag was still 350,000 units and that would indeed be just above the level of 1969. That year 349,588 new cars were sold, a point where we only stayed above in the years that followed. 2020 is likely to be the first exception.
It is not all doom and gloom, because ING is anticipating a recovery in 2021. Of course the ‘first wave’ has caused the most damage here and in a favorable scenario we will keep the visit to the dealer that has returned somewhat since then from now on . Nevertheless, various developments will continue to depress sales, ING expects. The fact that more people work from home plays a major role in this, as does unemployment as a result of the crisis. A long-dormant virus can also continue to throw a spanner in the works in the long term, for example in the absence of a vaccine or in another way to suppress the virus. The extent to which consumer confidence is rebounding and how the economy is coping with this blow, of course, also plays a role. Enough uncertainties yet. ING therefore expects the consequences in the sale of new cars to be felt until 2023.
Occasions partly absorb impact
While the Dutch tend to leave new cars in the showroom, the market for used cars has become busier. As mentioned before, this is largely due to a switch from public transport to private transport. For dealers, this increased demand somewhat offsets the blow of the slump in new car sales. In addition, we also drive even older. No less than 24 percent of the cars are older than 15 years. In 2010 this was still 13 percent. Due to the aging fleet, there is still quite a bit of work in the workshop. This ‘dampens the blow’ of the new sale somewhat in the figures: for the whole year, ING is anticipating a 10 percent drop in turnover for the entire automotive sector.
Nevertheless, severe weather can also be expected in this area in the long term. If the Dutch consistently make fewer kilometers, maintenance will be required less often and people may continue to drive quietly with old cars for even longer. Then it can also become remarkably quiet on the used car market and in the workshop.