Any delay will make some studies biologically impossible. If we want to find out the origin of the coronavirus, we will have to act now, scientists argue.

What is the true origin of the coronavirus? It is a pressing question that still remains unanswered. It has long been assumed that the virus first struck a market in Wuhan and passed from animal to human there. Yet there is no hard evidence for these and other proposed theories. However, scientists now argue that there is a need to rush to find out where the pandemic started. Because otherwise we may never know.

Stuck

In a commentary published in the journal Nature, the designated independent international members of the research team summarize the scientific process thus far. And the search for the origin of the coronavirus is far from easy. “Our report was published last March,” the team writes. “It was meant to be the first step in a process that has stalled.”

Three routes

In the joint report, the team explained that the coronavirus may have entered humans in three ways, namely: (1) zoonotic infection from handling infected animals; (2) through consumption of contaminated food or food from contaminated animals; or (3) by escaping a laboratory working with animal viruses. Of these three possible routes, the researchers found a “direct introduction or indirect zoonotic introduction via an intermediate host” the most likely, they write.

No definitive answers

However, this does not mean that this is the actual route. “This initial study was not expected to provide definitive answers about the exact origin of SARS-CoV-2,” the researchers said. “Instead, Phase 1 was always intended to be the foundation for a longer process of scientific research that could take months or even years. Therefore, the report made recommendations for Phase 2 studies that would follow the evidence and try to trace it along the most likely paths.”

Laboratory Incident
Although researchers consider the chance that the coronavirus was introduced to humans during an incident in a laboratory, they do not completely rule it out. “We thought this hypothesis was too important to ignore, so we challenged it with our Chinese counterparts,” the researchers wrote. However, no evidence for this has yet been found. However, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of the World Health Organization, last March called for more research into the hypothesis that the virus escaped from a lab. “I don’t think we’ve reviewed that extensively enough,” he said at the time. “More data and research is needed to arrive at more robust conclusions.”

However, there doesn’t seem to be much progress. “The Chinese team was and still is very reluctant to share raw data,” the researchers write. “For example, on the 174 cases identified in December 2019, out of concern for patients’ confidentiality.” The researchers then decided to leave these 174 cases for what they were. “At the time, it was also unclear whether the 174 cases were indeed the first,” they write. “That’s why we considered them less urgent in our search for the origin.”

Unclear

To date, however, much remains unclear. It is likely that the virus has been transmitted from animals to humans. But from which animal does the virus come? Bats could be, although no direct evidence for this has yet been found. What we do know is that SARS-CoV-2 was widely circulating in Wuhan in December 2019. But the researchers cannot prove whether the virus actually first struck the Huanan fish market. “We concluded that the Huanan fish market played an important role at the beginning of the pandemic,” the researchers said. “But we agree that the earliest cases of COVID-19 have likely been missed, as is common in new disease outbreaks.” In addition, many farms with live mammals have since been closed or cleared, making any evidence of the spread of the coronavirus increasingly difficult to find. So when, where and how the coronavirus first emerged is still a great mystery.

Hurry up

However, the researchers state in the commentary that it is very important to continue the study that has now stalled as soon as possible. “Understanding the origins of the devastating pandemic is a global priority,” they write. “However, the window to conduct the critical investigation closes quickly. Any delay will make some studies biologically impossible.” This is because antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 decrease. As a result, it is becoming increasingly difficult to detect these in people who were infected with COVID-19 before December 2019. It means we’d better hurry up. Because otherwise we may never know where the pandemic started.

“Understanding the origins of the devastating pandemic is a global priority”

Priorities

In the commentary, the researchers also make some recommendations. For example, there should be a better search for early COVID-19 cases in all regions inside and outside China, which may have been involved in the early spread of the virus. It is also necessary to better investigate which intermediate hosts are possible and which animal species could have served as reservoirs. “In addition, investigate all credible new leads,” the researchers emphasize.

Because, time is really running out. “The search for the origin of SARS-CoV-2 is at a critical point,” the researchers write. “However, there is a willingness to take steps, both from the WHO international team and the Chinese team. We call on the scientific community and country leaders to join forces. We need to accelerate the phase 2 studies described here while there is still time.”