Euro 6e-bis: PHEVs will no longer be attractive in the Netherlands from 1 January 2025

Not infrequently, a plug-in hybrid version of a certain model in the Netherlands is hardly more expensive or even cheaper than a often much less powerful, non-hybrid version. In the class of BMW’s X5 and Porsche’s Cayenne it even saves tens of thousands of euros, in favor of the much faster and much more widely applicable PHEV versions. In the more normal segments, the advantage comes down to a fairly modest additional cost for the faster and often more luxurious plug-in versions. Sometimes the difference with less powerful petrol versions is so small that car brands choose to offer purely plug-in hybrid versions.

The reason for this situation is easy to guess: bpm. The Tax on Passenger Cars and Motorcycles is based on CO2 emissions, which are extremely low for a PHEV. In theory, such a BMW blows into the theoretical world.

Depending on the user

It is immediately proven how arbitrary the CO2 emissions of such a plug-in hybrid are. After all, the much larger, much heavier and much faster X5 theoretically emits less CO2 than the compact Peugeot. As colleague Roy Kleijwegt explained in 2020, the actual consumption of a plug-in hybrid is completely dependent on the user. In theory, CO2 emissions can be 0 if the vehicle is never driven longer than the electric range of a PHEV allows. However, it could just as well be ten times the theoretical value (or more, X5!), if it is simply never plugged in. So everything is possible, and that makes it virtually impossible to arrive at reasonable official CO2 emissions for a PHEV.

However, that is a problem, because all kinds of taxes are also based on CO2 emissions outside the Netherlands. In addition, there are increasingly strict standards in the field of CO2 emissions worldwide and car manufacturers must ensure that their total sales remain below a certain ‘fleet average’, which is often largely made possible by the low CO2 emissions of PHEVs.

Different calculation

Although no one denies that the exact CO2 emissions of a plug-in cannot be accurately determined, the EU is of the opinion that the current values ​​do not correspond to the average emissions in practice. Research suggests that PHEVs drive electrically less often on average than is assumed, and so the rules will be tightened in about a year’s time. Under the denominations Euro 6e-bis and Euro 6e-bis-FCM, other coefficients will be used from January 1, 2025 to calculate CO2 emissions, using a WLTP test method that itself remains unchanged.

That, like almost everything from Brussels, is unnecessarily complex, but we will make an attempt to make the changes transparent. When measuring the CO2 emissions of a plug-in hybrid, the entire battery is first discharged, after which a further distance is driven with an empty battery under varying conditions. The resulting CO2 emissions are then offset in a complicated calculation with what is officially called a ‘Utility Factor’. The Utility Factor (UF) depends on the distance that can be driven on electricity and reduces theoretical CO2 emissions. The further the car can drive on electricity, the higher the UF and the lower the determined CO2 emissions.

UF curve

That UF can be captured in a graph. The resulting ‘UF curve’ clearly shows how the ‘CO2 discount’ works. At the bottom you will find the distance that the PHEV in question can drive electrically, and the UF factor is on the vertical axis. Since September 1, 2023, there has been official Euro 6e, but no changes have been made to the UF curve. This will change when Euro 6e-bis comes along on January 1, 2025. A certain electrical range then results in a lower UF due to a higher theoretical reference test distance, and therefore in less reduced CO2 emissions. As of 2027, this will be improved again and we will get Euro 6e-FCM. This stands for ‘Fuel and energy Consumption Monitoring’ and means that when calculating CO2 emissions, data collected in the intervening period by an On Board Fuel and energy Consumption Monitoring system is taken into account. Practical data, which is why the exact calculation will still be tinkered with before the introduction of Euro 6e-bis-FCM. However, the graph already gives an indication, and that will inevitably lead to a further ‘tightening’ of the policy when determining the CO2 emissions of a plug-in hybrid.

Example

But then, a practical example. The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) gives a somewhat unfortunate example of the ‘old’ BMW X1 xDrive25e. We’ll pretend that the car still exists and note that this plug-in hybrid SUV had a theoretical CO2 emission of about 45 grams per kilometer. According to the ICCT, Euro 6e-bis – the first step – would double theoretical CO2 emissions to 96 grams per kilometer. Euro 6e-bis-FCM takes a significant step further according to current assumptions, and increases CO2 emissions to 122 grams per kilometer.

For a ‘normal’ petrol car, this increase would result in a BPM amount of €4,580 in 2023 (instead of €1,885 at 45 grams per kilometer), but PHEVs are also taxed more heavily per gram of CO2. With the 2023 rules, the bpm in this case would amount to no less than €16,704, but that is of course all theory. If the theoretical CO2 emissions of PHEVs are indeed increased by these factors, there will undoubtedly also be a different bpm table. However, one thing seems clear: the large BPM advantage on a plug-in hybrid will be over from 2025.