In order to meet the 1.5 degree climate target, the promotion of fossil fuels must be severely limited worldwide, shows a recent study. According to this, almost 60 percent of the gas and oil reserves and 90 percent of the coal must remain in the ground. Different countries in the world are affected to different degrees. In the opinion of the researchers, political measures to restrict production and reduce demand are necessary in order to induce producers to produce fewer fossil fuels in the future.
In the Paris Agreement of 2015, the signatory nations agreed to limit global warming to a maximum of two degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial age and to strive to stay below 1.5 degrees Celsius. To achieve this goal, it is necessary to massively reduce emissions of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO2). So far, fossil fuels have been the basis for 81 percent of global energy consumption, and their extraction is an important economic factor. However, in order to be able to achieve the 1.5 degree climate target, a large part of the remaining reserves of coal, gas and oil must remain in the ground, a team led by Dan Welsby from University College London has calculated.
Funding peak reached or exceeded
“We used a global energy system model to determine the amount of fossil fuels that would have to remain in the soil regionally and globally in order to limit warming to 1.5 ° C with a 50 percent probability,” the researchers report. “We come to the conclusion that by 2050 almost 60 percent of crude oil and fossil methane gas, as well as 90 percent of coal, will have to remain unspent in order to meet this target.”
In many regions of the world, the peak in fossil fuel extraction has already been reached or exceeded in this scenario. “This means that a very high proportion of the reserves that are now considered to be economic would not be exploited with a global 1.5 ° C target,” the authors say. “This has important implications for producers who are betting on monetizing these reserves in the future, as well as for current and potential investors.” if the climate target is to be met.
Countries affected differently
Welsby and his colleagues also conclude that some countries are more affected than others, depending on how many raw material reserves they have and how easily accessible they are. The states of the Middle East and the former Soviet Union have the greatest influence on the global picture. But since the oil in the states of the former Soviet Union can be extracted particularly cost-effectively compared to other deposits in the world, the unusable proportions in this region are lower, only 38 percent, while in Canada, for example, 83 percent of the oil deposits below 1.5 Degree climate target should not be promoted.
According to the researchers, global production volumes would have to decrease by around three percent annually from now on. Here, too, they assume clear differences at the regional level. In this scenario, in this scenario, more oil would initially be produced in the USA by 2025 than before, as imports from other countries would decline, but the transport sector would initially still be dependent on fossil fuels. However, funding in the USA could also decline by 2050, as technologies that do not use fossil fuels are gaining ground worldwide. Fossil fuels that would be promoted after 2050 would for the most part no longer be burned, but only used as raw material in the chemical industry, which is less CO2-intensive.
Political action needed
For some countries, moving away from fossil fuels as an energy source would mean major economic challenges. “In Iraq, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait, 65 to 85 percent of total government revenues come from fossil fuels,” the researchers write. A fundamental rethink is therefore important. “Developing new low-carbon industries that will generate jobs and incomes will be critical,” said Welsby and colleagues.
Both domestic and global measures are required. “Such measures are designed to limit fossil fuel extraction and can include the removal of subsidies, production taxes, penalties for non-compliance, and bans on new exploration and production,” the researchers said. “Governments that have benefited in the past should take the lead, while other countries that are heavily dependent on fossil fuels but have little capacity to transition – or those that do without extractive activities – need support.”
Reduction required probably underestimated
The Covid-19 pandemic and the associated decline in gas and oil demand are an opportunity in this context. “The crisis has made the oil and gas sector in particular even more vulnerable and has raised concerns about its future profitability,” the researchers write. “These risks are exacerbated by the trend towards low-carbon technologies as the cost of renewable energy and battery technology continue to decline.”
The researchers point out that their calculations are likely to underestimate the actually required reduction in fossil fuels and that production would have to be cut back even faster. “This is because we have based our scenarios on a carbon budget that has a 50 percent probability of limiting warming to 1.5 ° C, not taking into account uncertainties, for example with regard to the feedback in the earth system They also assumed for the calculations that technologies will be established in the coming years that will make it possible to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. “The bleak picture our scenarios paint for the global fossil fuel industry is therefore very likely an underestimate.”
Source: Dan Welsby (University College London, UK) et al., Nature, doi: 10.1038 / s41586-021-03821-8