Most global trade is conducted through ports. However, their coastal and riverine locations make them particularly vulnerable to natural disasters from land and sea, including floods, hurricanes and earthquakes. A global analysis has now analyzed for 1,340 ports worldwide how high their risk is of being damaged by such natural hazards. According to this, almost 95 percent of the ports are exposed to more than one natural hazard. The estimated cost of damage is $7.5 billion per year. The results can help plan future investments and specifically increase the resilience of vulnerable ports.
Ports play an important role in the global economy: As hubs for industry and transport, they form the centers of the global flow of goods and are also among the largest employers in many regions. Natural disasters in recent years have shown time and again how vulnerable ports are to serious damage. Hurricanes, earthquakes and floods sometimes cause billions in damage, and port failures also cause serious economic losses. As climate-related natural disasters such as storms and floods increase as a result of climate change, future vulnerability to ports increases.
Combination of environmental hazards
A team led by Jasper Verschuur from the University of Oxford has now analyzed which ports in the world are at risk from environmental events and how high the expected damage costs are. For 1,340 ports worldwide, the authors have compiled which environmental risks the respective ports are exposed to and what costs can be expected from damage to the ports and from the interruption of port activities. They took into account both direct damage to the ports and to the surrounding infrastructure within a kilometer radius, including roads, railways and power lines.
The result: “Most ports are subject to damage and disruption from a variety of extremes and natural hazards,” according to the authors. “The vast majority of ports, 94.8 percent, are exposed to more than one natural hazard.” According to the analysis, the most common hazard is flooding from heavy rainfall (84.3 percent of ports) or overflowing rivers (80.4 percent ). Other sources of risk included were coastal flooding, hurricanes and earthquakes. The authors also took into account weather events that do not cause direct damage but can paralyze port operations for a period of time, including extremely high or low temperatures and strong winds.
High risk, high cost
According to the authors, the greatest economic damage is caused by hurricanes at an estimated 2.4 billion US dollars per year. The ports of Asia and Southeast Asia, but also the Caribbean, are particularly affected by this natural hazard. Next comes flooding from rivers ($1.9 billion) and coastal flooding ($0.8 billion). Many ports in Europe are also affected by this risk, making Bremen one of the top 50 in Germany in terms of possible damage. In total, the estimated annual damage costs amount to 7.5 billion US dollars for damage to ports and surrounding infrastructure alone. Additionally, the downtime associated with rebuilding and the time ports are not operational could cause $63.1 billion worth of trade losses. For 160 of the 1,340 analyzed ports, the port-related damage costs alone can exceed ten million US dollars.
“In absolute terms, the port-specific risk is concentrated in the large ports in high-income countries, as they have extensive port areas and a high infrastructure density,” explain the authors. “On the other hand, the risk is higher in relation to the port area in small ports in low-income countries.” Especially in small island developing states, but also in numerous other countries, large parts of the economy depend on a few ports, some of which are at high risk. “Disruptions in maritime trade can cause losses in the supply chain on a global scale that are not quantified in this study, but may be as large or even greater than the financial losses,” the authors warn.
Measures to increase resilience
From the point of view of Verschuur and his colleagues, the information compiled in the study is particularly relevant for political decision-makers, private investors, insurance companies and other stakeholders in maritime transport. They can help adapt investment to risk and design ports to increase their resilience to environmental disasters.
“Our results show that the vast majority of ports need to consider multiple hazards when planning and operating infrastructure,” the authors said. “For example, careful consideration must be given to the foundations of the quay walls if they are subject to earthquakes, the orientation and design of the breakwaters if they are subjected to extreme waves and tides, and the drainage system if the port is at risk from flooding.” In this way, the risk of ports being out of action for a long time after environmental disasters and causing high consequential costs could be reduced.
Source: Jasper Verschuur (University of Oxford) et al., Communications Earth & Environment, doi: 10.1038/s43247-022-00656-7