Arctic is warming four times faster than the rest of the world

In addition, the researchers discovered two huge peaks over a period of fifty years; something that has been overlooked by most climate models.

We know that the earth is warming rapidly due to climate change. However, warming is not happening at the same rate everywhere. The poles in particular appear to be very sensitive to climate change and are warming much faster than the rest of the world. How much faster exactly? In a new study researchers have delved into Arctic temperatures and come to a grim discovery.

Four times as fast

When scientists study climate change, they generally look at a time span of thirty years. But in a new study, researchers have reduced the time interval to 21 years. And that changes things. The new calculations show, for example, that the Arctic is warming even faster than previously thought: the Arctic is warming no less than four times as fast as the rest of the world.

Two peaks

Further analysis also reveals that two moments have been particularly rapid in the past fifty years. For example, the researchers discovered two huge peaks that represent rapid Arctic warming. “The first took place in 1986,” said researcher Petr Chylek. “The second in 1999.”

Climate models

To see if these two peaks had been noticed before, the researchers turned to a new set of climate models of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). CMIP6 has been used, among other things, to prepare a recent report from the IPCC. The researchers make a striking discovery. Out of a total of 39 climate models, it appears that only four models reproduced the first peak, which occurred around 1986, reasonably well. However, all models completely missed the second peak in 1999.

How is that possible?

The researchers think they can explain this. “The first peak may be associated with increased concentrations of carbon dioxide and other pollutants in the atmosphere,” Chylek explains. “Most climate models take this into account. We believe that the second peak remained under the radar due to climate variability.” Short-term climate variability is usually not noticed by climate models, because they generally only look at periods longer than thirty years.

Cause

While the study doesn’t pinpoint a cause for the spikes, the researchers suspect some of it could be attributed to the loss of sea ice, combined with how atmospheric and oceanic heat enters the Arctic.

It is very important that we have a good picture of how the Arctic is changing. The warming of the Arctic affects global weather patterns and sea levels. The new study therefore provides a better picture of the true rate of warming in the Arctic. And with a better understanding of the past, we can better predict the future.

Four models

The researchers plan to better study the four models of the CMIP6 that came closest to the observed warming trend. “Because these four models revealed at least the first peak, we suspect that these models also provide a better picture of the future climate,” Chylek said. “Normally, all models are averaged, assuming that together they are more reliable than each individual model. But we now show that that assumption does not hold in this case.”

Thanks to the study, we will not only have an idea of ​​what the world will look like by the end of this century, we will also have a better understanding of how the climate will change in the short term. “People are not only interested in long-term climate change,” Chylek said. “They also want to know what the world will look like in ten, twenty and thirty years. And for such predictions, our observations, which reveal an incremental warming trend, are very important.”