Are we now heading for an ice age or a heat age (global warming)? And how long would it be before we experience that?

Answer

Best,

there are two “rhythms” to distinguish. We ourselves always measure everything in a human measure, being in years, human lives, generations. When we talk about Earthly processes, such as ice ages, this transcends the human dimension, because these are periods of thousands of years.

For about 1.8 million years, the Earth has been in a period characterized by the regular occurrence of ice ages and interglacial periods. The time that elapses between the beginning of one major ice age and the start of the next is about 100,000 years. This depends on the distance from the Earth to the Sun and also the movements of the Earth’s axis (Milankovitch theory). Thus we know very well the “cadence” of ice ages and interglacials. Most interglacial periods last twenty to forty thousand years. Our current warm period started 10,000 years ago, so it will continue for a while… and it won’t even be for our great-grandchildren. So this transcends the human dimension.

What is “palpable” is the current global warming which is very well documented and is due to human CO₂emissions from the beginning of the last century. This unnatural warming comes on top of the natural interglacial period. Many measures are needed to counteract or undo these, of which we will only reap the results after a few generations.

Will this delay, stop, or perhaps speed up the arrival of the next ice age? There are many theories, but none that are generally accepted…

The only thing we can be sure of is that we will certainly experience a lasting warming. If we do something about it, it’s for our descendants. The next ice age will be a long time coming anyway.