So far, climate projections often only go as far as 2100. But what does the world look like for our grandchildren’s grandchildren?

Meanwhile, we have a pretty good idea of ​​what the world will look like – under different climate scenarios – by the end of this century. For example, scientists predict that summers in the northern hemisphere by 2100 will last six months longer than now and world cities may have warmed by more than 4 degrees Celsius. According to researchers in a new study however, should we look beyond the year 2100. Because what will the world look like in 2500, for example?

2100

Many scientists have already studied the long-term effects of climate change. Because of this, we know all too well the effects of the ever-rising greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the resulting rising temperatures and sea levels. But in most cases, we don’t look beyond the year 2100. According to researchers, however, it is very important that we think about it now; especially if we want to fully understand the climate impacts of each scenario. “The climate continues to change, even after 2100,” said study leader Christopher Lyon in an interview with Scientias.nl. “We need to envision the earth that our children and grandchildren may face, and what we can do now to make it just and livable for them.” Moreover, actions taken now will have implications for centuries, adds researcher Daniel Hill. “Not only the extent to which we now burn fossil fuels, but also where we build houses, what land we use for agriculture or where we plant trees. If we limit our planning horizon for future climate change to 2100, we could make unwise decisions that could cost us dearly in the long run. This could even be detrimental to long-term climate mitigation and adaptation strategies.”

Climate scenarios

In the new study, the researchers therefore looked further ahead. Until the year 2500. The researchers considered three different climate scenarios, namely an optimistic scenario – in which we embrace a very ambitious climate policy worldwide – but also two more bleak scenarios – in which little or no action is taken to reduce emissions and in which the earth continues to warm.

Forecast

The picture of the future that the scientists paint in their study is not very reassuring. Because if we do not succeed in achieving the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement, the world may have changed beyond recognition in 2500. Unless CO2 emissions fall sharply, climate change may have resulted in a barren Amazon region by 2500.

Forecasts for the Amazon. The top image shows a traditional indigenous village as it looked around 1500. The middle image shows a contemporary landscape. The bottom image shows what the rainforest could look like by 2500; an arid landscape with low water levels due to vegetation degradation, with sparse or degraded infrastructure and minimal human activity. Image: James McKay, CC BY-ND, The Conversation

In addition, the American Midwest will have a tropical climate.

Forecasts for the American Midwest. The top drawing shows indigenous towns and communities and diverse corn-based agriculture. The second is the same area today, with grain monoculture and large harvesters. The last image shows the adaptation of agriculture to a hot and humid subtropical climate. We mainly see agroforestry based on oil palms and succulents. The crops are looked after by AI drones, with a reduced human presence. Image: James McKay, CC BY-ND, The Conversation

And in India it will be so hot that the country will become virtually uninhabitable.

Predictions for India. The top image shows a busy agricultural townscape with, among other things, rice plantations and livestock. The middle image is a contemporary scene, showing both traditional rice farming and modern infrastructure. The bottom image shows a future of heat-adaptive technologies – including robotic farming and green buildings – with minimal human presence due to the need for personal protective equipment. Image: James McKay, CC BY-ND, The Conversation

In addition, if the two darkest climate scenarios become true, most vegetation and the best growing areas will move towards the poles and the area suitable for some crops will be reduced. But even if we do everything we can to reduce CO2 emissions and limit global warming, the researchers still predict that sea levels will continue to rise as a result of expansion and mixing of water in warming oceans.

Effects

The consequences of this will be far-reaching. “There is literally no place for arctic or subarctic flora or fauna,” said researcher Ariane Burke in conversation with Scientias.nl. But human indigenous tribes or communities may also lose out. “They are already under pressure, but I imagine they will come under increasing pressure as people and industry move north,” Burke says. In addition, indigenous communities in the Amazon are already facing such hardships. Think of illegal logging and mining. The predicted transformations of the landscape could be the final blow.”

Cake

It is now hard to imagine the picture that the researchers paint. Still, Lyon assures us that they are pretty accurate predictions. “Climate projections are like recipes,” he explains when asked. “They are based on a very good scientific understanding of how climate ‘ingredients’ interact and respond to change. Adding or removing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere is like changing the amount of a particular ingredient in a recipe. This means that we have a pretty good idea of ​​what our ‘cake’ will look like if we use too much or too little ‘flour’ or ‘sugar’. Although we cannot predict the specific daily weather in 100 or 500 years, based on our knowledge of how the climate works, we can find out whether it will become hotter, drier, wetter or stormier, for example.”

Actions

The findings underscore the magnitude of climate change and how bizarrely different the world could look in a few centuries. And that means urgent and decisive action is needed to worst case scenario to avoid. “This long-term perspective really underscores that we cannot afford to tackle climate change and its consequences with half measures,” researcher Julien Riel-Salvatore told Scientias.nl. “We need to adopt a multigenerational perspective to fully understand the effects and come up with adequate solutions. However, this is at odds with most political, social and economic structures. But our results should lead to the realization that it is essential to ‘think big’. Not only to anticipate the magnitude of the challenges we will face in the coming centuries, but also how to deal with the unprecedented disruptions we are just beginning to feel.”

With their study, the researchers show what the world could look like not only for our children, but also for the grandchildren of our grandchildren. “If we consider climate projections after 2100, we see the full impact of climate change, in which the planet is turning into an almost alien environment,” said study researcher James McKay. “It’s shocking to see, but hopefully this will help people have a more informed understanding of what’s at stake.” In addition, by looking beyond 2100, the study opens the door for researchers, policymakers and the public to understand the full scope of the impacts of climate change. “This can help us consider a wider range of actions,” Lyon said. “Think of more global cooperation and faster emission reductions. That will potentially lead us to avert the worst possible future.”