So-called super cell storms go hand in hand with hurricane gusts, hail and heavy rain and are among the most dangerous weather phenomena in Europe. Now researchers have created a high -resolution digital map that depicts and predicts the appearance of these extreme weather events with previously unavailed accuracy. In the event of progressive global warming, more super cell storms will occur in further parts of Europe. The Alpine region is particularly affected. For the south of France and the Iberian Peninsula, on the other hand, the study predicts a decrease in strong storms.
Although super cell storms only make a fraction of all thunderstorms that occur, they cause most of all damage. Violent gusts of wind, large hailstones and heavy rain ensure floods, harvest losses, traffic problems and injuries to deaths. They occur especially in summer when warm, moist air rises and leads to strong, rotating impact and absorption. In Europe, the emergence of such extreme weather events is monitored via weather radar. However, since the radar networks of the European countries are expanded differently and often do not work together, cross -border, comprehensive recording and analysis has so far been difficult.
Comparative of model simulation and reality
A team led by Monika Feldmann from the University of Bern has now created a detailed card with the help of climate simulations, which depicts the likelihood of Superzell storms with a high resolution of 2.2 kilometers. The researchers once used the current climate and once took the climate with an increase in global average temperature by three degrees Celsius compared to the pre -industrial age. According to experts, this warming is to be expected if the countries in the world maintain their current greenhouse gas emissions.
The researchers compared their model simulations with real weather data to actually occurred thunderstorms between 2016 and 2021. “However, the simulation matches the reality, but shows a little less thunderstorm than actually registered,” reports Feldmann. The model therefore tends to undergo the number of super cell storms. “This is due to the fact that the model can only represent such super cell storms that have an extent of more than 2.2 kilometers and take longer than an hour. However, some storms are smaller and last less long,” continues Feldmann.
Hotspot Alpen
Both the model simulation and the real weather data show that several hundred super cell storms occur every summer. The strong thunderstorms are particularly common in areas with complex topography, such as the Alps. “The absolute maximum frequency is along the southern Alps,” report the researchers. For this region, its model shows 61 super cell thunderstorms per season, on the northern slope of the Alps there are 38. On the other hand, the devastating air currents are less common above the ocean and flat areas of Europe, which ensure that super cells brew together.
According to the study, these patterns will increase with increasing global warming. Above all, the Alpine region must adapt to more severe storms in the future. In the northern Alps, a three-degree heating scenario could in future lead to 57 super cell thunderstorms per season-an increase of 52 percent. For the southern slope, the model even predicts 82 of these extreme weather events per season. The Baltic States as well as Central and Eastern Europe must also be prepared for an increase. On the other hand, the thunderstorms become less common on the Iberian Peninsula and in the south of France, according to the study.
Strong regional differences
According to the model, eleven percent more super cell thunderstorms can be expected in the pan-European average. “These regional differences make it clear how different climate change in Europe can affect,” says Feldmann. The high-resolution model simulation can help to better predict super cell storms in the future and to prevent the worst damage. “The better we understand the circumstances under which these storms arise, the better we can arm ourselves against it.”
Source: Monika Feldmann (University of Bern, Switzerland) et al., Science Advances, Doi: 10.1126/sciadv.adx0513
