COVID-19 may have claimed three times more lives worldwide than is now believed

Although official figures say that 5.9 million people have died from corona worldwide, researchers claim that in reality there may have been 18.2 million.

The full impact of the pandemic may be much greater than previously thought. Researchers write this in an analysis published in The Lancet† According to them, more than three times as many people may have died from COVID-19 than the official figures suggest.

In the new study, researchers looked at data on the number of deaths in 191 countries and territories (and 252 subnational locations such as states and provinces) between January 1, 2020 and December 31, 2021. The team then developed sophisticated models to measure the excess mortality from the to estimate the COVID-19 pandemic.

Three times higher

The researchers come to a disturbing conclusion. Because although the official figures say that 5.9 million people have died from corona, researchers claim that in reality it may have been 18.2 million. And that means that COVID-19 could have claimed three times more lives worldwide than is currently believed.

Number of deaths per 100,000 inhabitants

Worldwide, according to the researchers, there were about 120 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. In 21 countries, there could possibly have been more than 300 per 100,000 inhabitants. However, the number of additional deaths is estimated to vary widely by country and region. In the Netherlands, the researchers estimate, the excess mortality rate is 140 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, while in Bolivia as many as 734.9 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants may have occurred. In addition, the excess mortality rate was also particularly high in Bulgaria (647.3), Swaziland (634.9), North Macedonia (583.6) and Lesotho (562.9).

Most excess mortality

The analysis shows that South Asia was particularly hard hit with some 5.3 million additional deaths, followed by North Africa and the Middle East (1.7 million) and Eastern Europe (1.4 million). ). At the national level, India (4.1 million), the United States (1.1 million), Russia (1.1 million), Mexico (798,000), Brazil (792,000), Indonesia (736,000) and Pakistan (664,000). In the Netherlands there were 45,500. In addition, due to its sheer population size, India was responsible for some 22 percent of the total global deaths.

Higher than expected

In South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa in particular, the actual death rate was many times higher than the official figures suggest, the researchers say. For example, the excess mortality in South Asia was about 9.5 times higher than the reported number. In Sub-Saharan Africa, the number of additional deaths was even 14.2 times higher. The large differences between the official figures and the findings of the researchers may be due to underdiagnosis due to a lack of corona tests and because the recording of death data is not well regulated in some countries.

Complete view

However, according to the researchers, it is very important that we have a complete picture of the true death toll from the pandemic. “This is vital for effective public health decision-making,” said study researcher Haidong Wang. “Studies from several countries, including Sweden and the Netherlands, suggest that COVID-19 was the direct cause of most excess deaths. Unfortunately, we currently do not have sufficient evidence for many other countries.”

In addition, it is also still unclear how many direct and indirect deaths COVID-19 has caused. Evidence from previous studies suggests that a significant proportion of excess mortality is a direct result of COVID-19. However, deaths can also be indirect; think of things like suicide or drug use during the pandemic. “Further research will help uncover how many direct deaths COVID-19 has caused and how many are an indirect result of the pandemic,” Wang concluded.