Small growth in the coming years
There seems to be no end to the growth of global car sales, but ING notes that this eternal increase is not an absolute certainty. Global car sales will increase less and less in the coming years, while demand for EVs will stabilize, especially in Europe.
Okay, “eternal” isn’t quite the right term when it comes to global car sales growth. After all, car manufacturers also received a big push during corona, but before and after that there has been almost constant growth. By 2023 this was more visible than ever and no less than 10.8 percent more cars were sold worldwide than in the previous year. The situation will look very different for 2024, says ING. The bank predicts that we will have to settle for growth of ‘only’ 2.4 percent this year, followed by an even more moderate growth of 2.2 percent in 2025. For Europe, the figures are even more moderate: where China this year another 3 percent rise and the US 2, we have to settle for 1.5 percent in 2024.
That’s not very strange. After all, in 2022 there was a severe shortage of parts worldwide, especially chips. That put a brake on production. When it was back on track in 2023, car manufacturers and consumers were unsure how quickly they would have to catch up. Yet there is more to it. ING states that the decline in growth is largely caused by lower growth in sales of electric cars, which have largely contributed to overall growth in recent years.
When zooming in on those EVs, what is striking is that growth varies greatly per region. The growth of Chinese EV manufacturers seems unstoppable, both within China (30 percent electric) and abroad. However, European brands are having a more difficult time and that has everything to do with changing rules, such as the removal of EV subsidies in Germany.
While car sales are still growing slightly, according to ING car production will even stabilize in 2024. Car manufacturers have built up a healthy stock again, the researchers conclude, after there previously seemed to be a shortage everywhere. More generally, the volatile new price of electric cars appears to be playing a significant role. The price drops at Tesla and the Chinese brands often lead to similar price drops elsewhere, which in turn leads to uncertainty that leasing companies, rental companies and other large customers are certainly not enthusiastic about. Lacking charging infrastructure is also putting a brake on EV growth, ING sees. We have heard this before: to sustain growth, people without their own parking space must also switch to electric. And that often troubles him.
– Thanks for information from Autoweek.nl