Modern heat pumps can significantly reduce heating costs – especially in well -insulated houses. Nevertheless, they are still not installed as often as politically desired, and less often than gas heaters, a current survey shows. Why is that and how can the heat turn be pushed further?
In the course of climate protection, houses in Germany are to be gradually insulated so that they lose fewer heat. In 2010, politicians had set themselves the goal of renovating two percent of all homes every year. In addition, more sustainable heating techniques are to be installed that do without fossil fuels and thus cause fewer emissions. One option is heat pumps that are considered to be the climate -friendly key technology for the heat transition.
But what about the turning point? How many heat pumps have so far been installed in Germany and what costs and hurdles are connected to the current energy laws for the heat transition? This examined researchers around Kathrin Kaestner from the RWI-Leibniz Institute for Economic Research as part of the Copernicus project Ariadne, which is intended to provide orientation and decision-making aids in the energy transition. In autumn 2024, the scientists interviewed around 15,000 representative households all over Germany.
Heat turnaround is currently stagnating
The result: In 2024, only 1.1 percent of the homes were renovated energetically and only 1.3 percent of all existing buildings were equipped with a new heating. This missed the two percent goal in insulation renovation. It has never been achieved anyway. In 2022, however, 4.6 percent of all houses received a new heating – triggered by the energy crisis due to the Russian attack war on Ukraine and the building energy law, which was tightened in 2021, as the team explains.
“The severe decline since then includes fossil heating and heat pumps,” explains Kaestner. “This indicates that there is a lack of information on funding programs, but also political uncertainties about climate policy, building energy law and municipal heat planning, which brake politically deliberate heat transition.” Accordingly, many homeowners are unsettled by the political situation and price development and are currently shy away from investing in building renovation.
But although overall too few buildings were renovated and heaters were replaced, the heat pump has at least caught up with fossil fuels. While significantly fewer heat pumps were installed by oil, gas or pellets by 2023, both techniques were almost equal in 2024: 0.5 percent of all households received a heat pump and 0.7 percent a new fossil boiler or boiler heating. The bottom line is that the heat pump owners still remain a clear minority with six percent, the vast majority of German households surveyed further heat with gas or oil (43 and 13 percent) and with district heating (20 percent).
Heating costs save with a heat pump
The analysis also showed how much money can be saved when heating: on average of all heating types, the costs were 17.70 euros per square meter and year. The heating is now an average of 4.1 percent more expensive per square meter than in the previous year. However, the heat pump cuts significantly cheaper: households with heat pump paid an average of only 13.80 euros in 2024 for heating, but households with gas heating and 16.90 euros and even 20.60 euros with district heating. “The main cause of the higher costs in district heating should be the high prices for district heating, which have increased significantly in recent years,” said the team. Accordingly, almost no more new district heating heaters were installed in 2024 (0.03 percent of all buildings).
“The lower heating costs for heat pumps are sometimes due to the fact that these can only be used economically in buildings with higher energy efficiency and improved thermal insulation,” says Christian Oberst from the Institute of German Economy. In such modern and well -insulated houses, heat pumps are already the most popular heating technology and, due to better insulation and energy efficiency, also cause comparatively low costs. As early as 2023, 65 percent of these buildings had a heat pump, as numbers from the Federal Statistical Office prove. In any case, it has been legally prescribed since 2024 that 65 percent of all new buildings must be equipped with renewable heating energy.
Unequal distribution of the costs
The differences in heating costs particularly poorer people who tend to live in older and unanimized houses and often cannot afford a renovation despite funding – or cannot agree in apartment buildings, as the team suspects. Low -income households therefore paid 2024 an average of 20 euros per square meter and year, but wealthier households only around 16 euros per square meter, according to a further result of the investigation.
The existing CO2 price on heating energy, which makes heating even more expensive, especially with fossil techniques, rejected households with higher heating costs, in accordance with their lower income. Conversely, households with low heating costs and high incomes, for example owners of low-emission heat pumps or district heating pullers, agree to the CO2 price because they were little burdened by it. This also shows a socio -economic imbalance in the heat turnaround, according to the research team.
Politics must keep an eye on the costs of the heat transition
Kaestner and her team conclude from the results that the energetic modernization of the buildings in Germany is progressing in terms of selective but urgently needs to be accelerated in order to achieve the climate goals. However, many homeowners are apparently lacking reliable information as well as the financial options or incentives. “In order for climate -political measures such as energetic renovations and the exchange of old heating systems to find broad support, existing hurdles and cost loads have to be taken into account more. This is the only way to ensure long -term social acceptance,” said the team.
In the course of the energy transition, politicians are also planning to integrate the national CO2 price for buildings that had existed since 2021 into European emission trade from 2027. This will make the operation of oil and gas heaters in Germany even more expensive in the long term. In the course of this, the researchers also recommend that the barriers for energy renovations and heating exchange take into account further laws and support measures in Germany.
Source: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; Specialist articles: “FOkus report warmth and living 2024: Central results from the Ariadne heat and living panel ”
