Most of the Arctic Ocean is covered with a thick layer of ice, but this is quickly diminishing due to global warming. This is a disaster for nature, but it opens up new possibilities for shipping. It can get from A to B faster and more economically.

Climate change is causing rapid warming of all oceans. The future of the Arctic Ocean also looks bleak. Climate models predict that parts of the Arctic sea that are still covered with ice all year round will be ice-free for a large part of the year within a few decades. The survival of countless plant and animal species is in danger, according to scientists.

Black page with gold edge
But it’s not all doom and gloom. For international shipping, there could just be an advantage to an ice sea without ice. Within 40 years, so much sea ice has melted that completely new shipping routes are being created in international waters, conclude climate scientists at the American Brown University, who collaborated with a team from the law faculty at the University of Maine. This allows ships to arrive at their destination faster and more economically. This is potentially bad news for Russia, which now controls the Northern Sea Route.

“You can’t say that Arctic ice melting is good news,” said Brown’s lead researcher, Amanda Lynch, who has spent 30 years studying climate change over the Arctic Circle. “But the nasty new reality is that the ice is diminishing every year and these routes are opening up. We need to think carefully about the legal, geopolitical and environmental ramifications of all this.”

In 1982, the United Nations regulated how the Arctic shipping lanes are managed. This is described in Article 234 of the UN Law of the Sea. Countries bordering the Arctic Ocean are allowed to determine the sailing rules up to a distance of 12 nautical miles, or 22.2 kilometers from the coast. Beyond that, the international waters begin.

Bad news for Russia
Russia is currently firmly in control over the Arctic Circle. It has strictly regulated the international shipping route through the Arctic Ocean. Only Russian captains are allowed to sail the route, the toll is high and a request must be made in advance for the trip. Many large companies therefore avoid the Arctic route.

Freighter photo: Dan-prat

Co-author and international maritime law expert Charles Norchi explains the impact the melting Arctic ice could have on Russia, world trade and international politics: “The Russians will no doubt continue to invoke Article 234 to maintain their power in the Arctic Ocean, but they will probably soon be fishing for it. just. The law only applies to areas covered by ice for most of the year.”

“In addition, if it thaws hard enough, routes will open up outside Russian territorial waters. Russia cannot legally lay claims to shipping lanes through international waters.”

Never Ever Given again
Previous studies have shown that Arctic routes are 30 to 50 percent shorter than routes via the Suez Canal or Panama Canal. In practice, this saves fourteen to twenty days of sailing. New shipping routes through the Arctic Circle save time, money and significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. “Think back to the blockade of the Suez Canal by the giant ship Ever Given. The shipping route was blocked for weeks,” says Lynch. “If you can choose from more flavors to sail from A to B – especially if a new route cannot be blocked because of a narrow canal passage – it gives international shipping a lot more resilience.”

“It is better to come up with solutions now than to wait for reality to catch up with you. Especially when you’re talking about negotiating international laws. Article 234 took ten years to develop.” Lynch now hopes to spark a discussion so world leaders can make the decisions needed to save the climate. “Coming up with a good solution and implementing it when the crisis is already staring you in the face is almost impossible. It is now important to make well-considered international agreements.”