Less traffic, more home office: the corona pandemic meant a breather for the climate. Global CO2 emissions fell by 2.6 gigatons (seven percent) in 2020 compared to the previous year – more than ever before. Researchers are now calling for more sustainable climate protection measures, because in order to comply with the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement, annual savings of one to two gigatons of CO2 are necessary even without a lockdown. Economic stimulus packages after the pandemic can offer an opportunity, but if used incorrectly they can also lead to a relapse to high emissions, warn the researchers.
To contain the spread of the Sars-CoV-2 coronavirus, most countries in the world have taken extensive measures, including massive restrictions in the transport sector. This had a positive impact on the climate: CO2 emissions fell more in 2020 than ever before. But what happens after the pandemic? Does an economic recovery inevitably mean higher emissions again?
Developments since the Paris Climate Agreement
A team led by Corinne Le Quéré from the University of East Anglia in Norwich, UK, is now showing in a study how CO2 emissions from fossil fuels have developed since the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, what influence Covid-19 had and how the pandemic one Could offer an opportunity for a more climate-friendly future. “The COVID-19 pandemic came when global carbon emissions showed signs of slowing. The post-COVID era is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to secure these earlier achievements and use the recovery funds to accelerate change, ”says co-author Glen Peters of the Center for International Climate Research in Oslo.
According to the researchers, global CO2 emissions fell by seven percent in 2020 compared to the previous year, from 36.6 gigatons to 34 gigatons. “A decrease in global annual emissions of 2.6 gigatons of CO2 has never been observed before,” the study says. “Extensive restrictions in the transport sector had the greatest impact on emissions.”
Slight reductions even before the pandemic
The reduction was particularly noticeable in the 36 countries with the highest incomes. While these countries, including Germany, had reduced their emissions by an average of only 0.8 percent per year since the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement – a total of 0.1 gigatons per year – their CO2 emissions fell by a whole 1 in 2020, 2 gigatons, which is nine percent less than in 2019. Emissions fell the most in April 2020, when many countries imposed the first major lockdown. In the summer months, CO2 emissions rose again, but remained well below the previous year’s level.
In middle-income countries, including China, Covid-19 resulted in an average decrease in emissions of five percent. In the years before the pandemic, 30 out of 99 countries in this group managed to reduce their emissions. For the others, the increase at least slowed down between 2016 and 2019 compared to the previous five-year period. The 79 countries with the lowest incomes, on the other hand, showed unabated growth in emissions between 2016 and 2019 by an average of 0.18 gigatons per year. However, these countries together only contributed 14 percent to global CO2 emissions in 2019 – half as much as China alone. The Covid 19 pandemic also resulted in significantly reduced CO2 emissions in these countries.
Sustainable climate protection for the future
In order to meet the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement, however, significant reductions in CO2 emissions are required even after the pandemic, according to the researchers: “Throughout the 2020s and beyond, reductions of one to two gigatons of CO2 per year will be required in order to prevent the warming from exceeding the limit of 1.5 to 2 degrees compared to the pre-industrial age. “According to the researchers, the reductions through Covid-19 are not sustainable:” Emissions were lower in 2020 because the infrastructure for fossil fuels was used less, not because the infrastructure was shut down, ”says Peters. “If the fossil fuel infrastructure is brought back into operation, there is a risk that emissions will rise sharply again in 2021, as was the case after the global financial crisis in 2009.”
It is therefore important to align the economic stimulus packages after the pandemic in such a way that they promote climate-friendly developments instead of jeopardizing them. The researchers propose increased investments in green technologies such as renewable energies and electric mobility. Fossil fuels, on the other hand, should receive less support than before. Some behaviors from the pandemic – such as video meetings instead of business trips and regional tourism instead of long-distance travel – could also help keep emissions from the transport sector low. “We now need large-scale action that is good for human health and good for the planet. It is in the interests of all of us to accelerate the urgent transition to clean energy, ”says Le Quéré.
Source: Corinne Le Quéré (University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK) et al., Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038 / s41558-021-01001-0