Research suggests that many Dutch people only stop smoking when a pack of cigarettes costs 60 euros

Apparently, the government still has to raise a lot of excise duties to turn smokers into quitters.

In order to improve the health of the Dutch, the national government drew up a National Prevention Agreement in 2018 together with more than 70 civil society organisations. One of the spearheads of that agreement is to reduce the number of smokers. In concrete terms, the number of smoking adults must fall from 23% to a maximum of 5% (in 2040). To this end, various measures have been taken. For example, smoking products can no longer be seen at points of sale and more and more places are becoming smoke-free. The excise duty on tobacco was also significantly increased in 2020: a pack of 20 cigarettes became about one euro more expensive in one fell swoop.

Not enough

But will the higher price tag of a pack of shag or cigarettes actually cause the number of smokers in the Netherlands to decrease substantially? No, according to researchers at Maastricht University. Their new study reveals that the Dutch are willing to pay a lot of money for tobacco and that the considerable excise tax increase from 2020 will prevent too few smokers from putting out their last cigarette.

Sixty euros

Of course, this immediately raises the question of how expensive cigarettes and shag should be in order to ensure that a large number of smokers hang up their smoking products. The researchers have also looked into this and it produces an almost surrealistic picture. To get ten percent of smokers to put out their last cigarette, a pack of cigarettes must cost at least 12 euros. And no less than half of the smokers surveyed indicate that they only put out their last cigarette at a price of 60 euros per pack.

The research

For their study, the scientists interviewed almost 1500 Dutch people who smoke daily. The smokers were asked how many cigarettes or shag they would buy and smoke at eight different prices (between 0 and 6 euros per cigarette and between 0 and 4 euros per gram of shag). The research shows that smokers are also sensitive to price changes. Users of rolling tobacco appear to be slightly more sensitive to price increases than people who smoke cigarettes. “People adjust their consumption when they notice the difference in price in their wallet, i.e. when something becomes more or less affordable,” says researcher Cloé Geboers. Excise increases – such as those of 2020 – therefore certainly make sense.

Very addictive

But in order to achieve the goal of the National Prevention Agreement and to really get many smokers to stop smoking, very large excise tax increases are apparently necessary. According to the researchers, it once again shows how addictive smoking is and how affordable cigarettes in the Netherlands still are.

Further excise tax increase

All in all, according to the researchers, there is still a lot of room for further tax increases. Because at the moment an average cigarette and roll-your-own-roll costs 36 and 22 euro cents respectively. And that is still a long way from the average price (between 2 and 3.50 euros per cigarette or roll-your-own-roll) at which daily smokers said to stop or at least take a closer look at their consumption.

If the government decides to increase the excise duty in the long run, it is important that the prices for cigarettes and roll-your-own roll are not too far apart, the researchers emphasize. The danger is that people who find cigarettes too expensive, switch to shag instead of quitting smoking. “It remains important to combine excise tax increases with other measures,” says Geboers. “For example, the reimbursement of smoking cessation courses.”