And governments are not yet well prepared for that, experts warn.

Spurred on by climate change and land use, researchers expect wildfires to become more frequent in the future. They write that in a newly released report† By the way, we’ve known that for a long time. But now the researchers are coming up with concrete figures. For example, the number of forest fires could have increased by as much as 50 percent by 2100. And we are not at all prepared for that at the moment.

Significant increase

In the report, the researchers speak of a sharp increase in the number of wildfires. By 2030, the number of extreme fires could have increased by 14 percent, by 30 percent by the end of 2050 and by as much as 50 percent by the end of the century. Not only will we see wildfires more often, they are also expected to become considerably more severe.

Mutual reinforcement
According to the researchers, the increase in the number of forest fires is mainly due to climate change. The planet has warmed considerably since the industrial revolution. And since the 1980s, global warming has accelerated. This has led to higher temperatures and drought. The world now faces inconsistent rainfall and blistering heat leading to dry vegetation. And those dry bushes catch fire much more easily. At the same time, climate change is also exacerbated by wildfires. This is because natural belts destroy sensitive and carbon-rich ecosystems – such as peatlands and rainforests. This turns such landscapes into ‘tinder boxes’, making it more difficult to halt the constant rise in temperatures.

In addition, in the future we will also see conflagrations in places where they are still scarce, the researchers warn. Think the Arctic; a place where you might not expect a fire so quickly. But that will change. For example, the researchers predict that even in areas where we now rarely or never see wildfires, they could soon just pop up.

Warning

In the report, the researchers call on governments to take action. Because according to them, we are currently not at all prepared for the looming threat. “Investments need to be shifted towards prevention and preparedness,” the researchers write. Two thirds of expenditure should be spent on planning, prevention, readiness and recovery and only one third on response.

turnaround

It represents a clear turnaround. Because currently, more than half of the available money is usually spent on fire response, while less than one percent goes to planning. “Governments often spend money on the wrong things,” said Inger Andersen, executive director of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). “The first responders and firefighters on the front lines who are risking their lives fighting wildfires need better support. We need to minimize the risk of extreme wildfires by being better prepared: investing more in fire risk reduction, partnering with local communities and strengthening the global commitment to fight climate change.”

Effects

It is very important that we do our best to prevent forest fires, according to the researchers. For example, such fires have major consequences for the animals that live in affected areas. As a result, some animal and plant species are even threatened with extinction. A recent example is the Australian bushfires of 2020, which are estimated to have killed billions of domestic and wild animals. In addition, forest fires disproportionately affect the world’s poorest countries. Its impact can be felt days, weeks and even years after the flames have gone out. The economic costs associated with reconstruction may also exceed low-income countries. And so wildfires limit sustainable development and increase social inequality.

Prevent

To prevent forest fires, the authors argue that data and science-based monitoring systems should be better combined with indigenous knowledge. In addition, there is a need for better cooperation on both a regional and an international scale. Moreover, according to the researchers, it is important that ecosystems are restored to reduce the risk of forest fires. Think wetlands and peatlands. In addition, species such as the beaver should be reintroduced in some areas.

The report concludes with a call for stricter international standards for the safety and health of firefighters. During their operations, for example, they can inhale dangerous smoke, resulting in respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. They can also be trapped by the fire. According to the researchers, we should be more aware of the risks firefighters face when risking their lives to extinguish fires, including better provision of food and water and adequate rest between shifts.