High sugar consumption is a major cause of numerous diseases, including type 2 diabetes, obesity, cardiovascular disease and certain types of cancer. Many countries have therefore already introduced a tax on sugar-sweetened drinks. A simulation study now shows that such a tax could also help in Germany to reduce the population’s sugar intake and thus avoid illnesses and premature deaths. By relieving the burden on the health system and reducing cases of incapacity to work, up to 16 billion euros could be saved within 20 years.
The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends covering a maximum of ten percent of your daily calorie needs through sweets. For the average adult, this equates to about 50 grams of sugar per day. In Germany, however, the statistical average consumption is almost twice as high. Soft drinks play an important role in this. The WHO therefore suggests creating incentives to reduce consumption through a tax on sweetened drinks. Around 100 countries worldwide have already introduced such a tax. In Germany, on the other hand, there has so far only been a voluntary commitment by the beverage industry to reduce the sugar content in soft drinks, which has had little impact so far.
Simulation of various tax scenarios
A team led by Karl Emmert-Fees from the Technical University of Munich has now examined what a sugar tax could do in Germany. “We were equally interested in short-term and long-term effects,” says Emmert-Fee’s colleague Michael Laxy. “We therefore simulated how the most common international taxation approaches would affect the period from 2023 to 2043.” For their simulation, the researchers created a model that includes official population statistics as well as data on individual nutrition, diseases such as diabetes and health risk factors includes.
Emmert-Fees and his team combined this data with different variants of sweet drinks taxation. On the one hand, they simulated a 20 percent tax on soft drinks. Such a model is being implemented in Mexico, for example, and is primarily intended to cause people to buy and drink fewer soft drinks due to the higher prices. On the other hand, the researchers tested a graduated tax model based on the example of Great Britain. Manufacturers there have to pay a tax that increases the more sugar the drinks contain. In the UK, the introduction of this tax has led to many manufacturers reducing the sugar content of their products.
Better health and less expenses
The result: A 20 percent tax on sugary drinks would reduce the sugar consumption of Germans between the ages of 30 and 90 by an average of one gram per day. As a result, more than 132,000 cases of type 2 diabetes, over 39,000 heart diseases and around 1,900 strokes could be prevented or delayed by 2043, as the scientists determined. Obesity in the population would also be reduced. According to the forecast, this model could save around 9.6 billion euros over the course of 20 years through fewer absences from work due to illness and lower health costs. The effect would be even stronger if, in addition to soft drinks, fruit juices were also taxed higher. In this case, the researchers expect savings of 11.8 billion euros.
However, Emmert-Fees and his team see the greatest effect for a staggered tax model based on the British model. In this case, average daily sugar consumption could be reduced by 2.34 grams per day as beverage manufacturers reduce the sugar content of their products, according to the results. The scientists calculated that more than 244,000 cases of diabetes, almost 70,000 cases of heart disease and 3,400 strokes could be prevented or delayed in this way. The team estimates the expected savings at 16 billion euros.
Real effects potentially even stronger
Since much of the data used was only available for people over 30 in Germany, the researchers left out children, adolescents and young adults in their simulation. “We know from national and international studies that soft drink consumption is highest among teenagers,” says lead author Karl Emmert-Fees. “Accordingly, the average reduction in sugar consumption would be even more drastic and the positive health effect even greater if we took younger people into account.”
Sarah Forberger from the Leibniz Institute for Prevention Research and Epidemiology (BIPS) in Bremen, who was not involved in the study, also points out that the socioeconomic background of the consumers was also not taken into account. “Taxation is likely to have a different impact on different income groups,” she says. It is known that people with low to middle incomes consume more soft drinks on average. At the same time, they would probably be most deterred by a price increase and could therefore benefit particularly from a health perspective.
Task of politics
From Forberger’s perspective, taxation can be a sensible first step. “However, high sugar consumption and obesity are too complex to be effectively combated with taxation alone,” she says. “In addition, there could be a shift to other products or neighboring countries for purchasing in Germany. A holistic approach should therefore be used, which takes into account taxation, advertising bans, education, but also food labeling and school meals.” According to Forberger, it could also make sense to include sweeteners in addition to sugar, as these are also associated with various diseases become.
“Politicians must decide whether and in what form taxation of soft drinks makes sense for Germany,” says Laxy. “With our study we want to provide factual arguments for this debate. Our study shows that a levy or tax on sweetened drinks is a relevant measure to prevent obesity, diabetes and heart disease. Approaches such as information campaigns have their place, but they are not sufficient and can only be one component of an effective overall strategy.”
Source: Karl Emmert-Fees (Technical University of Munich) et al., PLoS Medicine, doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1004311