Moreover, they can reinforce each other, which may lead to a global crisis in the coming century.
A large-scale study involving no fewer than 200 scientists presses us once again with the nose on the facts. In the study, the researchers identify the five biggest threats to humanity based on an extensive questionnaire among scientists. The conclusion may not be surprising, but somewhat remarkable. Because the findings show that climate change (1), extreme weather conditions from hurricanes to heat waves (2), the decline of biodiversity and important ecosystems (3), food security (4) and decreasing freshwater resources (5) will each pose a huge challenge for humanity in the coming century.
Threats
What exactly is remarkable about this? A threatening nuclear war, an economic crisis or political unrest apparently did not make it to the top five. Environmental problems therefore seem to be winning. “That is indeed the most surprising finding,” researcher Maria Ivanova also tells Techzle “The top five risks can all be linked to changes in the environment that exceed other global risks. We see it all around us: devastating fires, floods and other critical conditions that result from the loss of balance in nature. This therefore reflects the collective opinion of scientists. What is even more striking is that the global business elite hold the same opinion. A questionnaire – the annual Global Risks Perception Survey – among approximately 750 members of the World Economic Forum shows that the same five points are mentioned as the most important global risks.”
Top 5
The top 5 was compiled from a list of 30 global threats facing our earth. In addition, the issues were chosen based on their impact, but also on probability. The researchers emphasize that the five issues have the potential to catastrophically influence and reinforce each other, “in a way that could lead to a global crisis,” they write in their fifty-page report. Extreme heat waves can, for example, accelerate global warming, transporting large amounts of stored carbon from affected ecosystems to the atmosphere, which can simultaneously cause water shortages and food shortages. The loss of biodiversity also weakens the ability to cope with extreme temperatures,
Little surprising
“We may think that the ranking is surprising, but that is not really it,” says Ivanova. “Scientists and politicians have been warning about the decline of our planet for decades.” The current study is not new in that regard either. Many previous studies have already underlined the threats that our earth is currently facing. Yet Ivanova believes the study makes an important contribution. “What distinguishes this study is that it points to the interdependence of global risks,” she explains when asked. “They do not happen on their own and therefore cannot be dealt with as separate events. A joint strategy is necessary. Moreover, we can now compare what scientists consider the most important risks and what the business community and policymakers think about it. That was not possible until now. Is there a worldwide consensus? If so, then we can map out a range of options for moving from perception to action.”
“WE DON’T CLOSE OUR EARS IF A DOCTOR INFORMS US ABOUT AN ILLNESS THAT WE HAVE CONTRACTED?”
Indifferent
Yet there is not really any gas behind it at the moment. Moreover, it seems that all the negative news about climate change only makes people more indifferent. “It is indeed true that people run the risk of feeling a little helpless,” says Ivanova. “But at the moment we not only hear what is happening on the earth, we also see it. And that should actually wake us up and encourage us to work together more powerful and ambitious. Knowing more is important and indispensable. We also do not close our ears when a doctor informs us about a contracted illness. On the contrary, the more we know, the more proactive we can be. And that can be seen by the young people who stand up on the street, in courtrooms and companies today. Turning the tide is not impossible, but requires joint efforts. “
Responsibility
Action at all levels – from the individual to global governance – is therefore necessary if we are to combat the threats. “What is crucial is that responsibility for tackling the crisis is not left to the individual alone,” says Ivanova. “We need ambitious companies, but we need the right political and policy framework for that. Ultimately, it is the governments that will establish the necessary regulatory framework within which companies can operate. Urgenda’s lawsuit against climate change in the Netherlands emphasizes the importance and political responsibility of the government and the value of civil society that can challenge the status quo. ”
More about the Urgenda case
A few years ago the organization Urgenda – together with 900 co-plaintiffs – sued the Dutch State. Urgenda thought that the Dutch State did too little to combat climate change. For example, the Dutch State should do more to protect civilians against climate change and the emission of greenhouse gasses in 2020 should have decreased by 25% compared to 1990. The court ruled in favor of Urgenda three times. It means that the government now really has to work. The question, however, is whether Urgenda’s demand is still feasible after years of legal tug of war. Probably not. But looking at how far you can go and then continue to build on it with speed after 2020 is certainly a step in the right direction. And perhaps the best we can hope for now.
The fact that things really have to change is beyond doubt for Ivanova. “Governments and companies need to be bolder and faster in developing a carbon-free economy, producing food more sustainably and providing clean water and air,” she says. Yet the question arises whether we are not too late by now. “I just finished reading Christiana Figueres’ book; the former Secretary General of the UNFCCC, “says Ivanova. “And I agree with the conclusion that I would like to quote. “Even at this late time,” she writes, “we still have a choice about our future. And that is why every measure we take from now on counts. Moreover, we are able to make the right choice about our own destination. We are not doomed to a devastating future and humanity is not able to respond to major problems. We have a duty to hope and a responsibility to act. And that responsibility is particularly urgent for governments and international organizations. “