Weblog Bas – Why the ë-C3 may not be a top hit

Until now, I saw costs as the main obstacle to the energy transition in the automotive sector. I may have been wrong about that. In addition to the too high prices and the decreasing or disappearing subsidies or additional tax benefits, I believe there is a deeper explanation for the stagnant sales of electric cars. Technology is not developing fast enough to… moral majority of skeptics, and that group also includes people who have the money for it. Evolution has come to a standstill. Charging speeds increased rapidly, but range remained stagnant. A large part of the EV range between ID.3 and BMW iX reaches a maximum of 400 kilometers unless you do everything you can to get more out of it, but you don’t buy a BMW to hold back. Only with very large and therefore expensive batteries does even a brand like Tesla, which manages to get more out of less with Model Y and Model 3, substantially exceed the magical 500 limit. You accept those disadvantages as long as there are sufficient financial benefits in return. In the golden tax years, they stood in line for Teslas. That time is over. After years of playing Sinterklaas, the state wants to make money from the car again. EV drivers will soon simply pay motor vehicle tax and I have no illusions about tomorrow’s electricity prices. That’s fine, but then you pave the way again for the laziness of the creatures of habit that we all are to some extent. Someone who could buy a VW ID.7 for 64 grand will think faster; With a VW plugin I can commute just as electrically to work for much less.

The dirt-cheap, nice-looking ë-C3 in its genre could easily fall victim to it, regardless of its qualities. He has three disabilities. One: Three hundred kilometers – which he really has to travel to survive – is not far enough to convince motorists with carefree petrol cars. Two: It remains a small car with limited use for larger households. Three: Charging a 44 kWh battery at a fast charging rate of 100 kW still takes far too long for the spoiled petrol customer, especially when it gets cold.

I would have to swallow point four because it is speculation. But then you throw it into the group, so go ahead: The C3 you want will cost more than Citroën is now predicting, or prices will rise sharply after the introduction. Also happened with the Dacia Spring. There is a gap of about four thousand euros between the original price and the current price. The evil suspicion that manufacturers collect state subsidies in a roundabout way cannot escape my mind.

In any case: Judging from the showroom stocks from BMW to VW, today’s electric car has a substantial problem. The euphoria is over. There is now real evidence for that. According to research by the American research agency S & P Global Mobility, almost half of plug-in drivers are considering returning to a car with a combustion engine (or keeping one in addition to the EV). As expected, loyalty to the formula is much higher among Tesla drivers. The combustion engine is still a safety net in many households, including mine.

The breakthrough of electric driving is a multi-stage rocket. Tesla took the first, revolutionary step with the Model S and the second with the Model 3, which democratized the full-fledged EV in a stunningly convincing way. As long as it lasts, and that may not be very long, that brand will remain on all relevant fronts leading. But step three will really have to come from a technological revolution. Battery size and weight should be halved, energy densities doubled. After that, the undoubtedly expensive price for the great leap forward will have to drop again to a level affordable for the ordinary citizenry. This will allow us to continue for years without costly subsidy support. Without being the prophet of doom; there is a long way to go here. You wonder whether the politicians at the controls realize that.