Even if countries meet their current commitments, we still have to count on a temperature increase of 2.2 degrees Celsius.

The climate summit in Glasgow starts this weekend. And it will get tense. The joint commitments of countries all over the world are still insufficient to achieve the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement. In fact, we are heading for a temperature increase of more than 2 degrees Celsius anyway.

Report

It is the unequivocal findings set forth in a new climate report, released by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) ahead of the climate summit. To limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, annual greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by about 55 percent by 2030. To stay on track for a warming of 2 degrees, this is around 30 percent. But right now, it looks like we’ll only get to 7.5 percent by 2030.

Climate change

The urgency to act is therefore still a long way off in many countries. And that while we are already experiencing the consequences of climate change. “Climate change is no longer a future problem, it is a problem now,” said Inger Andersen, UNEP Executive Director. According to her, it is therefore necessary that we act now and do everything we can to achieve the goals set. “To stand a chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, we have eight years to nearly halve greenhouse gas emissions,” Andersen says. “We have eight years to make plans and execute them. The clock is ticking loudly.”

2 degrees warming

However, we will have to come with heavy artillery. Because according to the researchers, despite all climate goals and promises, we are still heading for more than 2 degrees of warming. New and updated climate pledges fall far short of what is needed to meet the targets set in the Paris Climate Agreement, putting us on track for a global temperature increase of at least 2.7 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. We can refine this somewhat, because the researchers conclude that net-zero targets can make a difference. Although it does not seem that we can stay below 2 degrees Celsius. Because even if net-zero commitments were fully implemented as promised, we would have to expect a temperature increase of 2.2 degrees Celsius.

More about net-zero targets
In total, 49 countries plus the EU have announced a net-zero target. This covers more than half of global domestic greenhouse gas emissions, more than half of GDP and a third of the world’s population. Eleven targets are set in law, accounting for 12 percent of global emissions. Unfortunately, current plans are often still too vague, in many cases incomplete and inconsistent, making it questionable whether they will actually be implemented.

However, we have not completely stood still in recent years. It turns out that before the Paris Climate Agreement we were heading for a temperature rise of about 4 degrees Celsius. “So there is progress, but not enough,” said Alok Sharma, the incoming COP26 chairman. “That’s why we especially need the biggest emitters, the G20 countries, to come up with stronger commitments to 2030.”

methane

These are particularly necessary in the area of ​​methane emissions. Because according to the researchers, there is much to be gained in that area. Reducing methane emissions can already contribute in the short term to closing the emissions gap and limiting warming. And that offers perspective. Moreover, it appears that with available technical measures, we can already reduce methane emissions by about 20 percent per year. If we really do our best, we can even reduce methane emissions by about 45 percent.

Pandemic

In any case, the researchers note that we have lost the option of making the economy grow back ‘greener’ after the corona crisis. The hope was that the pandemic would bring about a rigorous turnaround. 2020 would be the year in which climate rescue would take shape. Although the corona pandemic has indeed led to a decrease in global CO2 emissions of about 5.4 percent, this has not been enough for a real climate revolution. Because CO2 emissions are expected to rise again in 2021 to a level just below the record level of 2019. In addition, only 20 percent of the total investments in economic recovery made up to and including May 2021 contribute to a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.

All in all, there is plenty to discuss with these findings at the upcoming climate summit in Glasgow. “The world needs to wake up to the looming danger we face as a species,” Andersen said. “Net zero pledges will have to be more concrete, countries need to get their policies in order and start implementing them urgently.” The extent to which countries are prepared to do this will become clear sometime this week.