We haven’t found any aliens yet. And that may have a macabre reason; the aliens are (before we can see them) doomed to destroy their civilization or – in the best case scenario – put their expansionism on the back burner.

Researchers come up with this hypothesis in the Journal of the Royal Society Interface† The hypothesis is loosely based on what we see happening in cities here on Earth. “Other scientists have already determined that cities are growing in ways that are unsustainable in the long term,” said study researcher Michael Wong. Scientias.nl from. “It is because resource consumption increases disproportionately as cities grow.” And that is obviously a problem. Because it means that there will come a time when cities will, for example, need more energy than is available. “It results in crises we call ‘singularities’ where population and energy demand increase endlessly over a finite period of time.” In such a scenario, civilization is doomed to run into shortages, causing – without intervention – the entire system to collapse.

Innovation

The only way to avert or at least postpone such a crisis is to come up with innovations. But because the population and energy demand in a growing city are increasing exponentially, those innovations will have to follow each other more and more quickly if we want to prevent a crisis. And therein lies the challenge. Not just for us. But also possible, the researchers argue in their research article, for aliens. “We hypothesize that planetary civilizations behave like cities,” Wong said. “And if that’s the case, sooner or later they’ll hit a limit that limits their growth. We call this boundary ‘asymptotic burnout’: an ultimate crisis in which the time that elapses between singularities (or crises, ed.) is shorter than the time between innovations.” In other words, the aliens are innovating too slowly to escape their self-created fate.

Downfall or other priorities

When such an asymptotic burnout threatens, there are actually two options, say Wong and colleague Stuart Bartlett. One: the alien civilization is either oblivious or burying its head in the sand and completely collapses. Or, two, the aliens become aware that they are headed for their doom and change course. “They prioritize homeostasis: a state in which cosmic expansion is no longer a goal.” In both scenarios, it becomes difficult, if not impossible, to detect the aliens from a considerable distance. Because in the first scenario, they, or at least the advanced and therefore detectable civilization they once formed, are no more. And in the second scenario, they are no longer focused on exploring space or increasing and proclaiming their presence, but on preserving what they have. “Unbridled growth and productivity gives way to a focus on health, balance and maximum longevity,” says Wong.

Fermi Paradox

The hypothesis may just be the answer to the infamous Fermi Paradox. According to this paradox, it is statistically very likely that life can be found elsewhere in space. But paradoxically, we have not yet been able to find any trace of it. There is not (yet) a conclusive explanation for this. But the idea that alien civilizations are destroying themselves, or at least exhausting their homes to the point where their expansion drive has to be put on the back burner before it even takes off, may help explain why we’re here on Earth or in nearby space haven’t encountered aliens yet.

Hypothesis

Whether the statement is correct is another matter. “It’s a hypothesis,” Wong emphasizes. “As with many things in astrobiology, there is no conclusive evidence that it is true. So I hope people read the research article carefully and decide for themselves whether this is a good idea or not.”

Utility

It may not seem so useful to come up with all kinds of wild, difficult to test ideas to explain the Fermi Paradox. But Wong sees it differently. “The more we learn about the universe, the stronger the desire to determine our place in it becomes. Are we alone and unique? Are we the only life forms and only form of consciousness? Or are we just another example of a common planetary phenomenon? I really want to know the answer to that, but the search has only just begun. Right now, it’s very important for us to come up with ideas that – based on what we know – make sense and may one day be tested. Many of those ideas will eventually turn out to be wrong, but if we are creative, brave and smart enough, some of them will still be right.”

There is still hope

It is still unclear whether Wong’s latest hypothesis will be part of this. And somewhere you would almost hope not, because in that scenario it will be very difficult to discover aliens. Difficult, but not impossible, as Wong and Bartlett emphasize in their study. Thus, even if alien civilizations are ultimately doomed to collapse or step back, it should be possible to discover them shortly before that singularity or crisis or burnout occurs. If that – the alien who continues to guzzle energy with death in mind – is indeed the target group of astrobiologists, then we already know a bit about what types we will be dealing with. “It is possible that a large part of our detections of extraterrestrial life will be intelligent, but not very sensible, life forms.”

It’s always fascinating to think about the traits of any aliens and how that might or might not help us find them. But if it were up to Wong and Bartlett, this research article will not only make us think about extraterrestrial growth and the limits that may be placed on it. It is also important to look at ourselves: the civilization on which the idea of ​​an asymptotic burnout is loosely based. “It’s important to find out if our global operations are putting us on a course toward burnout. And if so, then we must try to understand how to escape that fate. It is important for us to realize that we have the cognitive abilities necessary to become aware of what we are doing with our planet. No other species known to us can do that and we are therefore at a unique moment in history. Will we use our cognitive skills to help ourselves in the long run or will we use them to destroy ourselves? The choice is, as they always say, ours.”