The global car industry can prepare for longer disappointing production. The biggest culprit is, of course, the chip shortage. Research agency IHS lowers expectations.
At the beginning of this year, most car manufacturers still hoped that the lowest point of the production loss due to the chip shortage would be in the third quarter. While that may be about right, the road back to normal production appears to be longer than expected. At least, that’s what IHS Markit says. That has lowered production expectations for ‘light’ cars.
It is now estimated that 75.8 million cars will be produced for 2021. That’s 6.2 percent less than what IHS previously counted on. In 2022, 82.6 million cars are expected to be produced, which is a bit more than this year, but nevertheless a contraction of 9.3 percent compared to earlier expectations. In 2023 it will increase further to 92 million cars, but that is also 1.1 percent less than previously forecast. According to IHS, an additional problem has arisen with the chip shortage, which has made expectations more gloomy. The packaging of microchips in Malaysia is lagging behind due to local lockdowns. A problem that started manifesting itself at the beginning of last summer.
recovery
Although next year and 2023 will already be better than 2021, people speak of a clearer recovery only from 2024. IHS takes into account catching up and states that in 2024 and 2025 more cars may be built than initially expected. For 2024, the target is 97.3 million copies, an increase of 3.2 percent compared to earlier. In 2025, IHS expects 2.4 percent more than before, with 98.9 million cars produced.
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