Experts do not expect it to get busier than ever immediately after the corona crisis. This is despite the fact that fewer people are using public transport. “Traffic congestion is primarily linked to economic activity.”
Earlier this month, traffic intensity was already at 75 percent of normal. If the call to work from home as much as possible is dropped immediately, it may not only return to the usual traffic, but it may even get busier on the road. It is expected that a large number of people who normally travel by public transport now choose to take the car. In this way they come into contact with as few others as possible. “People with their own cars are going to use it more,” wrote consultancy McKinsey earlier this month.
‘Car use is looking at coffee grounds’
“As far as car use is concerned, the coffee grounds keep on looking,” says Niels van Oort, public transport expert at TU Delft’s Smart Public Transport Lab. “Much depends on what governments and companies decide with regard to working hours, off-peak travel and working from home. However, it is important to consider this now.”
Rico Luman of the ING Economic Bureau endorses this. “This situation may prompt the government to come up with accelerated incentives for working from home and other working hours so that traffic can be spread throughout the day.”
However, Luman does not expect the usual traffic to return quickly. This is not because more people continue to work at home, but because an economic downturn is inevitable. “Not many traffic jams will immediately arise, because the congestion pressure is primarily linked to economic activity and that it has decreased. We will not be back to the old level next year either.”