However, preventive measures, including improved access to education and healthy lifestyles, could reverse that trend.

Dementia is currently the seventh leading cause of death worldwide. However, there is a good chance that the disease will rise up that ladder. Researchers have come to the rather worrying discovery that the number of people with dementia is going to rise explosively. The number of cases could even triple by 2050.

Dementia

The researchers predict in a new study that by the middle of this century some 153 million people worldwide will be living with dementia. In 2019, there were still 57 million. This significant increase is mainly the result of population growth and an aging population.

Nations

The number of people with dementia is expected to increase in every country. The biggest increase is likely to be seen in North Africa and the Middle East, where cases will increase by a staggering 367 percent (from nearly 3 million to nearly 14 million by 2050). Qatar (1926 percent), the United Arab Emirates (1795 percent) and Bahrain (1084 percent) will account for the largest increases. Also in eastern Sub-Saharan Africa, the number of people with dementia will explode by 357 percent (from 660,000 in 2019 to more than 3 million in 2050). This significant increase is mainly driven by the population growth there.

Europe

Closer to home, in Europe, more people will be affected by the debilitating disease. The number of people with dementia will increase by 74 percent (from almost 8 million in 2019 to almost 14 million in 2050). We cannot escape it in the Netherlands either. Researchers predict that the number of cases in our country will increase from more than 277,000 in 2019 to more than 493,000 in 2050.

More women than men

Worldwide, more women than men develop dementia. And that will probably also be the case in 2050. “This isn’t just because women are more likely to live longer,” said study researcher Jaimie Steinmetz. “There is also evidence of gender differences in the biological mechanisms underlying dementia. It seems that Alzheimer’s disease spreads differently in women’s brains than in men.”

old age

Although dementia mainly affects the elderly, it is not an inevitable consequence of old age. For example, a previous study suggested that 40 percent of dementia cases could have been prevented or delayed if 12 known risk factors were better addressed. These include low education, high blood pressure, hearing impairment, smoking, middle-aged obesity, depression, physical inactivity, diabetes, social isolation, excessive alcohol consumption, head injury and air pollution.

Precautionary actions

According to the researchers, improved access to education could lead to as many as six million fewer cases of dementia worldwide by 2050. Other preventive measures, including better nutrition and exercise, could also reduce the risk of dementia. That such preventive measures have an effect, according to the researchers, is shown by the very small increase in the number of people with dementia in Japan. Here, the number of cases will only increase by 27 percent.

“We should focus more on preventing and managing the risk factors before they lead to dementia,” said study leader Emma Nichols. “Even small advances can make a difference. In each country we should therefore reduce exposure to the main risk factors. For most countries, this means healthier diets and more exercise. Smoking cessation should also be encouraged and access to education improved. In addition, it is important that we continue to invest in research into effective treatments to stop, delay or prevent dementia.”