If countries fulfill their new climate promises, we are much more likely to prevent the worst of global warming.

More than 100 countries have made new commitments to limit greenhouse gas emissions ahead of the climate change summit in Glasgow. But how much weight do these new promises weigh? In a new study researchers assessed what its effect would be on Earth’s climate. And the results may surprise you.

60 percent

Researchers come with good news. Because under the new commitments – and if those commitments are actually successfully delivered and reinforced with policies and measures of equal ambition – there is a chance that we will succeed in limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius by the end of this century. , a lot bigger. At the time of the Paris climate summit, the chance that we could keep warming below 2 degrees Celsius was about 8 percent. Now that chance has increased to 35%. And, if countries take a more ambitious path beyond 2030, those opportunities become even more likely. For example, the researchers estimate the chance that we will then be able to limit warming to 2 degrees, around 60 percent.

Closer

So it means we’re getting closer and closer to that once-ambitious goal of mitigating climate change. In fact, there is about a one in three chance that we will stay below 2 degrees Celsius. “We are much closer to reaching the 2-degree mark than we were six years ago when the Paris Agreement was signed,” said study researcher Haewon McJeon. “The wave of reinforced climate pledges and net-zero targets have significantly increased our chances of staying below 2 degrees Celsius of warming.”

Action is needed
For years, scientists have been sounding the alarm that the climate is not doing well. Indeed, many of the changes we now observe in the climate are unprecedented in the past thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of years. And some of those changes that have already been set in motion – think of the continuing rise in sea levels – are irreversible. This means that if we don’t act quickly, climate change will only get worse. For example, with an average global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius, we will experience more heat waves and have longer warm seasons. In addition, cold seasons will become shorter. The situation will become even more critical when the earth warms on average 2 degrees Celsius. Then we will experience even more extreme heat which is harmful to agriculture and our health.

Moreover, the chance that the global temperature will tower above 4 degrees Celsius is now virtually impossible. And that while at the time of the pledges in Paris, at 10 percent, that was a lot more likely.

1,5 degree limit

It means that with the new commitments and promises we are finally moving in the right direction. Even with this heightened ambition, we are still a long way from committing to doing everything we can to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees. The chance that we will achieve this target is around 1.5 percent. With more ambitious targets, that percentage could rise to 11 percent. Although this is considerably more than during the Paris Climate Summit (at the time the chance that we would stay below the 1.5-degree limit was 0 percent), the chance is still many times greater that we will not meet the target. “Making the 1.5-degree limit more likely requires more ambition,” warns study leader Yang Ou.

Brighter future

Yet in their study the researchers paint a rosier picture of the future. Several factors have reshaped short-term emissions trajectories and long-term climate outcomes, they say. Examples include the global shift from coal to technological advancements that made solar panels and electric cars cheaper. These developments have contributed to the achievement of the objectives of the Paris Climate Agreement. “New commitments, technological advances and the short- and long-term recovery from the pandemic have set us on a different course,” said researcher Gokul Iyer.

However, according to the researchers, we are not there yet. “If we adopt more ambitious targets that truly reflect the responsibilities of all parties, it will become even more likely that we will stay below 2 degrees of warming,” Iyer continues. “This therefore highlights the importance of the Glasgow Agreement. Without periodic and transparent updates, the commitments will not be strong enough to meet the temperature target.”