While the focus is on the ever-rising fuel prices in general, another striking phenomenon is happening: the price difference between diesel and petrol is shrinking. A few experts explain how this is possible and whether it is realistic that diesel can become more expensive than petrol.
It is striking that diesel is now only slightly cheaper than petrol. According to market expert Paul van Selms of consumer collective UnitedConsumers, diesel has never been more expensive than petrol. Rico Luman, transport and mobility sector economist at ING, has already seen diesel rise towards the price of petrol in the past two years, something that has accelerated since the war in Ukraine.
The first explanation is the dependence on Russia. Europe is more dependent on Russia for diesel than for petrol. Due to the sanctions and uncertainty in the market, the supply of diesel is therefore under even more pressure than that of petrol, says Luman. There has also been a shortage of diesel in Europe for some time. While the diesel-powered truck traffic remained reasonably stable during the corona crisis, the number of cars on the road that ran on petrol decreased due to corona rules. People worked from home and traveled less. Demand for diesel, for example, remained intact, but fell for petrol. “But today’s rapid increase is largely due to the turmoil of recent weeks,” said Luman.
Also, the faster increase in the price of diesel compared to that of petrol could be due to more aware drivers, who mainly drive petrol cars. The demand for petrol is shrinking at such high prices, but the demand for diesel remains more stable. Luman: “For freight traffic, for example, the market continues. As a result, price increases have less influence on the demand for diesel.”
Peak reached?
Van Selms also says that diesel could become more expensive than petrol ‘in theory fine’ for the first time ever. Luman finds that difficult to predict. “I have no indication of this, but it could of course be possible if this trend continues. The offer is being tinkered with by the sanctions against Russia and you notice that in the market. The sanctions affect diesel more than petrol.” According to Luman, it seems that fuel prices have now reached ‘some sort of intermediate high’. “I hope and think it is.”
– Thanks for information from Autoweek.nl