The first and second part of the current world climate report made it clear that action is urgently needed. The third part that has now been published takes a closer look at the areas in which climate protection is taking effect, where there are still gaps and which measures have the greatest potential to still achieve the climate protection goals and limit warming to 1.5 or at least two degrees. In its report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) also emphasizes that we are running out of time: global greenhouse gas emissions, which are still rising, must fall as early as 2025 if serious consequences are to be avoided.
Climate change can no longer be denied and is already having almost global consequences, including rising temperatures, extreme weather, increasing floods and storms. In the Paris climate agreement in 2015, countries around the world committed to limiting global warming to a maximum of two degrees, if possible only 1.5 degrees, compared to pre-industrial values. However, little has happened since then and greenhouse gas emissions have reached record levels. In the third part of the current World Climate Report, the IPCC scientists of Working Group III have now summarized what the balance sheet in global climate protection looks like in concrete terms and what can and must be done to achieve the climate protection goals.
“Now or never”
The key statement in the third part of the World Climate Report is clear: “We are at a crossroads: the decisions we make today can still enable a future that is friendly to life,” says IPCC Chairman Hoesung Lee. However, this requires immediate action. Limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2 degrees would require greenhouse gas emissions to peak no later than 2025 and fall by 43 or 25 percent by 2030. “Even if we manage to do this, it will be inevitable that we will temporarily exceed temperature thresholds,” the IPCC said. “It’s now or never if we still want to achieve the climate protection goals,” says Jim Skea, head of the IPCC Working Group III.
The report gives a rather mixed testimony to climate protection efforts to date. On the one hand, the world community is far from the goals of the Paris climate protection agreement: In the decade from 2010 to 2019, greenhouse gas emissions were higher than ever before. If the emissions trend continues, warming will reach at least 2.8 degrees. On the other hand, however, global CO2 emissions have already slowed compared to the previous decade. In concrete terms, emissions have slowed by 1.3 percent compared to the previous decade due to more efficient processes and less use of fossil fuels in the energy sector, and those in industry by around two percent. However, the increase in greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector has remained the same. Overall, however, the reductions so far have not been large enough to offset the global increase in emissions in almost all sectors.
Where has something happened?
In many areas, however, there are first positive signs of transformation and decarbonization. “There are policies, regulations and market tools that are proving effective,” says Lee. “When these are scaled up and applied more widely and more evenly, they can support deep emissions reductions and foster innovation.” According to the IPCC calculations, such measures have already avoided emissions of several gigatonnes of CO2 per year. The scientists see progress in laws and measures that limit emissions and promote climate protection. In 2020, around 20 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions were already included in CO2 taxes or emissions trading. “Even if coverage and prices have not been sufficient to achieve deep reductions,” says the report. In addition, there are climate protection laws in 56 countries that make direct specifications for emissions.
But there are already concrete measures – including in the industrial sector. “For many basic materials, including steel, building materials and chemicals, production processes with reduced or no greenhouse gas emissions are already in the pilot phase or close to commercial applications,” according to the IPCC. However, there is still a lot to be done before zero-emission technologies can take effect on a large scale. In the energy sector, the cost of renewable energy has decreased drastically since 2010. In the case of solar energy, they fell by 85 percent, in the case of wind energy by 55 percent, and the lithium-ion batteries that are important for electromobility have also become 85 percent cheaper. “This has led to strong expansion, for example by more than 10-fold for solar energy and a good 100-fold for electric vehicles, although this varies greatly by region,” according to the IPCC report. However, almost everywhere there is a lack of sufficient investment, although the funds are basically available. “Public and private financing for fossil fuels still exceeds that for climate change mitigation and adaptation,” the report says.
(Video: IPCC)
Where is there still potential?
In addition to the further decarbonization of energy production and industry, the IPCC scientists also see great potential in the building sector and in the demand for energy and goods: savings of 40 to 70 percent are possible here. Specifically, this could happen, among other things, through more energy-efficient buildings, more compact infrastructure with shorter distances between living and working, but also changed eating habits. There is already some progress in the area of development: “We see examples of zero-energy or zero-carbon buildings in almost all climate zones,” says Skea. So far, however, these approaches have been too fragmented, too few and too unequally distributed. Further changes are therefore necessary and feasible, especially in urban areas. These consist, among other things, in the construction of zero-emission houses and increased recycling of materials, but also in the conversion of the transport infrastructure. “There are options for existing cities, fast-growing cities and also new ones,” the IPCC report says.
However, it is also becoming clear that the climate protection goals will probably not be achievable without solutions for capturing CO2 from exhaust gases and air. “The use of CDR (CO2 removal) to offset the hard-to-reduce residual emissions is unavoidable if we are to achieve net-zero emissions,” the IPCC states. However, the degree of maturity and feasibility varies greatly depending on the method. The scientists see CO2 binding through afforestation, adapted forest management, the renaturation of moors and soil care as more advanced and already feasible. On the other hand, the report classifies technical solutions such as CO2 separation and storage (CCS) or carbon capture from the air using special systems as expensive and, at least until 2030, as ineffective. “
Overall, the conclusion of the scientists is: Achieving the climate protection goals is feasible, we already have many of the methods for this – but they must be implemented. “We have the tools and the know-how to limit warming,” says Lee. It is now a matter of applying them.
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of climate changeContribution of Working Group III