‘Demand for electric lease cars is stagnating’

At least that is what Wilbert Philippo of Lease Comparator concludes. According to him, there is no structural decline in prices on the electric lease car market, but there are prices that have not risen for some time. In the case of specific models, there also appears to be a price drop. That is special, because we live in a time of high inflation. Until recently, this also affected electric lease cars: in 2022, Lease Comparator saw price increases of 12 to 13 percent.

Saturated market

Philippo states that the EV market in the Netherlands is actually saturated for the time being: “Research has already shown that the majority of EV drivers have a driveway and solar panels and can therefore charge easily and cheaply at home. That part of the market is now saturated and the next group, people who do not have these facilities, are often not interested in an EV at all.”

The high additional tax also plays a role, according to the founder of Lease Comparison. At 16 instead of 22 percent, there will still be a discount in 2023, but it only applies up to €30,000 and EVs quickly become much more expensive than that. For many employees and other business drivers, a cheaper petrol car is an attractive alternative, especially if it means that the ‘charging hassle’ can be avoided.

According to Philippo, it is certainly not the case that anyone who currently drives electrically will continue to do so. “There is a large group of electric drivers who now still have a 4 percent additional tax because they joined in 2019. Those cars will turn five next year and that means that the additional tax benefit will stop and many of those contracts will expire. There will also be people who simply get into a petrol car again, also because of the additional tax.”

At the same time, we often hear from companies that impose on their employees that they must drive electrically, for image reasons or to reduce the company’s registered CO2 emissions. Philippo does not immediately see a reason for growth in this either: “Companies that want that have already made that switch. Of the companies that still want to do this, a large proportion of their employees will not want to participate because of the additional tax and charging.”

Abundant stock

There are also quite a few causes for the price drops on the supply side. While the car world was short of everything not so long ago, some models are now in plentiful supply. Philippo: “This leads to cashback promotions, discounts on the monthly amount or shortening the lease period. For example, a Citroën ë-C4 normally costs €450 per month with a 72-month contract, while you can now return it for the same monthly amount after 13 months.” According to Philippo, older EVs also often last longer in the lease, also at significant discounts. He certainly sees no reason to believe that the tide will turn soon: “And to think that about 30,000 Tesla Model 3s will become available next year, because the lease contract has expired after five years.

According to the creator of Lease Comparator, petrol cars remain popular: “I think many business drivers want to drive a petrol car while they still can, and are now seizing the opportunity.”

Things are not going well for EVs on the private market either: earlier today it became clear that private buyers are less likely to be persuaded by the subsidy amount and are also held back by the uncertainty surrounding motor vehicle tax for EVs. .